ChemOrbis and TTCP seminar on the Middle East War’s Impact on the Petrochemical Chain draws strong interest

At the webinar titled “How is the Middle East War Shaking Global Petrochemical Markets? What Lies Ahead for Türkiye?”, held on April 2, ChemOrbis Türkiye Market Intelligence Manager Merve Madakbaşı and Dr. Mevlüt Çetinkaya, founder of TTCP Training and Consulting Industry and Trade Ltd., comprehensively discussed the disruptions caused by the war across the energy and petrochemical value chain.

Energy–petrochemical ecosystem and possibilities addressed

In the first session of the webinar, Dr. Mevlüt Çetinkaya elaborated on the integration between energy and petrochemicals, while providing key insights into the core petrochemical chain and its end-use applications. He also outlined the historical dynamics of oil investments and shared data on global plastics consumption.

The discussion highlighted how oil prices typically behave during periods of crisis and the time needed for normalization. Attention was drawn to the sharp surge in naphtha, ethylene, and propane prices driven by the latest Middle East war, as well as steep increases in April monomer contracts in Europe. While referencing ethylene costs and margins across Asia, Europe, and the US, it was emphasized that Asia cannot sustain prolonged production with negative margins, raising the likelihood of production cutbacks.

Finally, potential structural changes in the sector driven by the war were explored, along with both positive and negative scenarios. The speakers highlighted Türkiye’s export exposure to Gulf countries across sectors and possible shifts. Beyond the adverse impacts of the war, it was noted that Türkiye could re-emerge as a fast supply and production hub, as well as a key transit bridge in energy flows.

Impacts on Türkiye and forward-looking scenarios discussed

In the second session, Merve Madakbaşı, Türkiye Content Manager at ChemOrbis, focused particularly on the multilayered impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz on critical feedstocks such as crude oil, naphtha, LNG, LPG (propane), and methanol. Oil prices were identified as the most critical global risk factor, while the sharp spike in naphtha costs and tightening LNG supply between Europe and Asia were said to directly affect the petrochemical production chain. Similarly, disruptions in LPG were noted to hit polypropylene production, while methanol markets—particularly in China—have experienced a significant supply shock.

The sharp volatility observed in monomer and polymer markets throughout March was described as an “extraordinary period.” During this time, rapid and steep increases in global polymer prices were driven by a supply shock and a deepening logistics crisis, which tightened markets to varying degrees. Disruptions in the Gulf hindered key export corridors, while alternative logistics routes offered only limited relief, further exposing vulnerabilities in the supply chain. These developments were said to intensify price volatility, particularly in import-dependent markets such as Türkiye and India.

The session also underlined Türkiye’s fragile position across polymer markets, especially in PP, PE, and PVC, while also touching on the significant impact on PS, ABS, and PET markets. Current conditions are expected to remain shaped by a triangle of high prices, tight supply, and weak demand in the short term. Looking ahead, the trajectory of logistics flows, volatility in energy markets, and geopolitical developments will be key determinants, while demand dynamics may play a balancing role in the medium term.

Q&A part receives lots of questions about trajectory

The webinar concluded with a Q&A session, where participants’ questions were addressed.