Cost of Middle East war for Türkiye: Polymer markets surge to 2021–2022 highs, PE exceeds pandemic-peaks

The outbreak of the Middle East war in late February has triggered a relentless bullish rally across Türkiye’s polymer markets, sending prices for PP, PE, PVC, PS, ABS, and PET sharply higher. What initially began as a cost-driven uptick quickly evolved into a supply-led surge, as disruptions to key Middle Eastern production hubs, logistical bottlenecks, and soaring freight and insurance costs tightened availability across the board.

Polyolefins have led the rally by a wide margin, while some other chains followed with strong, albeit more measured gains, collectively pushing the market toward levels not seen since the 2021–2022 cycle.

Across the market, the narrative moved toward supply security concerns, replacement cost pressure, and geopolitical risk management in late Q1. Türkiye’s position as a net importer for most polymers has become more visible than ever, with the country emerging as a premium market versus Asia for polyolefins. This widening gap has started to open an arbitrage window, drawing attention to potential re-export cargoes from China and other Asian hubs, although these flows remained sporadic and insufficient to fully offset the loss of regular Middle Eastern supply at the time of writing.

Supply shocks take their toll on polyolefins, hardest hit among polymers

PP and PE markets have remained at the epicenter of the rally, reacting sharply to successive disruptions across the Middle East. The attack on Jubail, combined with earlier issues around the UAE’s Ruwais complex and uncertainties surrounding flows through the Strait of Hormuz, severely curtailed regional export availability. Major producers, including those in Saudi Arabia, halted or reduced operations as a precaution, tightening supply at a time when the market was already structurally short.

While a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the US initially raised hopes for easing logistics, reports of violations and renewed disruptions to tanker traffic quickly undermined confidence. Peace talks between the US and Iran failed over the weekend, pushing Brent futures to above $100/bbl on Monday.



However, these aggressive hikes were met with growing resistance from buyers. Converters, already grappling with rising utility costs and the hardship of passing on steeply higher resin costs to derivative customers, showed limited willingness to accept such sharp increases. The market became increasingly disconnected, with wide gaps between bids and offers and liquidity largely drying up. Despite tight supply, the lack of purchasing power and persistent uncertainty led many buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

According to the weekly average data from ChemOrbis, Saudi Arabian PPH and PPBC inj. assessments hit their highest levels since April 2022 and November 2021, respectively.

PE prices exceed pandemic peaks in most cases

As for Middle Eastern PE, LDPE returned to the 2008 highs, while LLDPE touched a 4-year high. Tightness even sent HDPE film to its highest levels since mid-2014. Meanwhile, import indexes for overall origins, including all duties wherever applicable, as well as local price indexes, draw a more dramatic picture, as they suggest the highest levels since 2008.

PVC rally pauses as oil volatility tempers sentiment

Unlike polyolefins, Türkiye’s PVC market has recently shown signs of losing momentum. Following weeks of steady increases driven by higher energy and feedstock costs, as well as curtailed supply from South Korea, fragile geopolitical tensions, and volatile oil prices prompted both buyers and sellers to step back. Activity slowed markedly, with players opting to monitor developments rather than commit to new positions.

Import prices saw slight downward adjustments at the low end last week, reflecting ebbing demand and softer signals from Asian markets, particularly China. Dutiable K67 prices edged down toward $1080/ton CIF, while duty-free ranges also saw minor revisions. Still, duty-free offers pointed to their highest levels since July 2022, as per the weekly average data from ChemOrbis Price Index.

That said, the downside in PVC remains limited by underlying supply-side constraints and elevated upstream costs. Delayed shipments, maintenance turnarounds, and cautious allocation policies continue to restrict spot availability, while European suppliers remain largely absent from the Turkish market. These factors are preventing a sharper correction despite weaker buying interest.

ABS leads styrenics rally due to a lack of domestic production

The PS market soared on the back of limited availability and surging upstream costs. Import offers, particularly from South Korea, remained strong at their highest levels since July 2022, while European material was largely absent, pushing notional ranges higher. Domestic producers implemented triple-digit increases for April, reflecting the sharp rise in styrene costs. At the same time, supply constraints continued to outweigh demand weakness. Although upstream markets showed some softening last week, they remained significantly above pre-war benchmarks, ensuring continued cost support for PS. Sellers expect the current tightness and cost pressure to persist into the summer months, suggesting that prices may remain resilient even in the absence of strong consumption.

In the ABS market, prices recorded massive hikes over the last one and a half months due to scarce import offers and ongoing force majeure situations at key European ABS and Middle Eastern styrene producers. Although upstream costs showed slight corrections late last week, they remained elevated overall. Waning demand, however, capped further increases last week, keeping the market in a narrow range shaped by the interplay between constrained supply and cautious buying. Still, import prices hovered around their highest levels since mid-2021 on a weekly average.

PET loses momentum; yet prices point to multi-year highs

Türkiye’s PET market shifted into a more cautious phase, marking the first signs of fatigue after weeks of steady gains, yet the weekly averages still stood at their highest levels since July 2022. Import PET bottle prices saw modest corrections over the past week, as buyers retreated to the sidelines following the sharp drop in crude oil futures at the time. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, albeit slow and uncertain, also contributed to easing immediate supply concerns. Nonetheless, Monday’s rebound in the energy complex amid failed peace talks, as well as firm container prices, kept the market on edge amid the nearing high season.