Four weeks into war: Polymer rally hits multi-year highs, momentum slows; are further hikes ahead in April?

The final week of March, marking one month since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, began with a sharp pullback in crude oil following the steep gains seen during the first three weeks. This triggered renewed volatility across the upstream chain, where feedstocks and monomers have borne the brunt of the impact. Meanwhile, the rally largely persisted on the polymers side, although its pace appears to have eased in several products.

Notably, polymer markets across regions have now reached their highest levels in nearly four years in many cases, returning to or approaching levels last seen during the pandemic-era rally, while some products—particularly in Europe—have moved into even more recent cycle highs.

Asia: Prices at 4-year highs, but cracks emerge in weekly momentum

Asian markets have not only posted some of the strongest cumulative gains since the outbreak of the war, but have also pushed prices back to pandemic-era highs across most polymer chains.

In China, prices have broadly returned to levels last seen in 2022 across PP, PE, PVC, PET and ABS, while PS is nearing 2021–2022 levels. Cumulative gains from W9 to W13 reached 36–49% for PP, 26–35% for PE, 36–55% for PVC, 36–41% for PET, 36–55% for PS, and 40–62% for ABS.

However, the latest weekly data signals a clear slowdown. Most products posted only low single-digit increases, including PP (4–7%), PS (1–6%), and ABS (0–4%), while PET slipped into negative territory (-1% to -3%), pointing to soft demand conditions.

A similar pattern is visible in Southeast Asia, where polymer prices have also climbed back to 2022 highs across nearly all products. Despite cumulative gains of over 50% in polyolefins, weekly increases narrowed to 3–8% for PP/PE and just 0–1% for PVC, although PS remained relatively firm at 10–11%, highlighting ongoing tightness in select chains.

India has likewise returned to 2022–2023 peak levels in PVC and 2022 highs in polyolefins, but weekly gains slowed to 0–8%, reinforcing the view that the rally is losing momentum even as absolute price levels remain elevated.



Türkiye and Egypt: Multi-year highs reached, but divergence widens

Türkiye has seen one of the sharpest cumulative rallies, with prices across most polymers returning to 2022 highs, while ABS remains below pandemic peaks at 2021–2022 levels.

Cumulative gains reached as high as 96–104% for ABS, alongside strong increases in PP and PE. Yet the latest weekly data shows a more fragmented picture: PP rose just 1–4%, PVC was up 5-9%, PET was flat, and PE gained 4–9%, while ABS continued to surge by 15–28%, indicating that tightness is now concentrated in specific product chains rather than broad-based.

Egypt presents a contrasting case. While polyolefins and PET have largely returned to 2022 highs, PS and ABS have moved into more recent peaks in 2024 , pointing to tighter supply conditions in styrenics.

Weekly increases also remained comparatively strong, with PE up 13–25% and PP up 10–18%, suggesting that Egypt continues to absorb supply disruptions more directly than other markets. This makes it one of the few regions where the rally has remained relatively broad-based even after four weeks.

Europe: Shift from 2022 highs to new cycle peaks in key products

In Europe, polymer markets have also returned to 2022 highs in polyolefins, with PP and PE in NWE/Italy posting cumulative gains of 44–54% and 44–48%, respectively.

However, the region stands out for a different reason: some products have moved beyond pandemic-era levels into new cycle highs. PVC has reached only 2025–2026 levels, while PS has climbed to 2024 highs and ABS has reached 2023 levels. This indicates a more structural supply tightness in certain chains, particularly styrenics.

Despite these elevated levels, weekly momentum has clearly weakened. Recent gains were limited to 1–5% for PE, 1–2% for PVC, around 5% for PET,and 3–4% for PS and ABS, suggesting increasing resistance as prices approach or exceed previous peaks.



No clear end in sight – but can the rally extend further?

Looking ahead, there is still no clear end in sight for a meaningful de-escalation of the conflict, leaving markets highly sensitive to further disruptions.

Despite partial easing—such as Iran allowing some vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and the increasing use of land-bridge alternatives—supply chain disruptions remain significant. In fact, some scenarios point to Brent potentially spiking toward $200/bbl if tensions escalate further.

This raises a critical question for markets:

Can further price hikes be sustained as we enter April?

The first week of April will be decisive, as producers prepare to announce new monthly prices. Fresh supply disruptions or cost pressures could still trigger additional hikes, particularly in already tight chains such as ABS and certain polyolefins.

However, unlike the pandemic period, the current rally is not supported by strong demand. Downstream consumption remains weak across most regions, and buyers are increasingly resisting higher prices.

At the same time, freight rates remain far below pandemic peaks —at roughly one-fifth of those levels, meaning logistics are not amplifying the rally as they once did.

In this context, while upside risks persist, the market is increasingly caught between elevated costs and fragile demand, suggesting that further gains may face stronger resistance and heightened volatility in the weeks ahead.