Global shipping faces persistent bottlenecks across major trade routes

Global supply chains remain exposed to a patchwork of geopolitical, weather-related and infrastructure disruptions in August, with conditions deteriorating at some of the world’s key trade arteries from the Middle East and Asia to Europe and Americas even as tentative signs of normalization emerge elsewhere. The result is not a single global shipping crisis, but an accumulation of regional bottlenecks that continues to undermine schedule reliability and complicate trade flows.

Pressure point	Current status	Key issue
Strait of Hormuz	🔴 Critical	Geopolitical disruption
Jeddah / Sohar	🔴 Severe	Port congestion
Rhine	🟠 High pressure	Record low water levels
Panama Canal	🟠 Under pressure	Water constraints
Shanghai / Zhejiang	🟠 Disrupted	Post-storm vessel backlogs
Red Sea / Suez	🟡 Fragile → Improving	Gradual carrier return

Hormuz traffic remains depressed as security risks intensify

There has been little meaningful improvement in the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic remains well below normal levels amid persistent security concerns.

Six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, August 18, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters, down from nine on Monday and below the 10-day daily average of 11 vessels. The figures underline the continuing weakness in traffic through the strategic waterway despite day-to-day fluctuations.

The prolonged disruption is also reshaping tanker logistics. Chinese state-owned shipping companies have kept vessels away from both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb since late July, according to Reuters, instead deploying tankers outside the Gulf and using ship-to-ship transfers around Fujairah and Oman to move Middle Eastern crude while limiting exposure to the highest-risk waterways.

Gulf port congestion spreads from Jeddah to Sohar

Congestion across the Gulf logistics network is meanwhile adding another layer of disruption, with pressure no longer limited to Jeddah.

Jeddah has faced elevated congestion as changing regional cargo flows and greater reliance on alternative logistics routes put additional pressure on terminal capacity. The gradual return of Suez services is also maintaining the Saudi port’s strategic importance as carriers rebuild Red Sea connections.

Similar conditions are now being reported at Sohar Port in Oman. Congestion across several major Gulf ports has placed container terminals under increased pressure and reduced schedule reliability.

The notice said Sohar was experiencing above-normal congestion, with median vessel waiting times of around five to six days. Similar conditions were being observed at neighboring ports, affecting vessel rotations and shipping schedules across multiple trade lanes.

The congestion at Sohar is particularly significant as the port has become increasingly important to regional cargo movements amid disruption elsewhere in the Gulf. With both Jeddah and Sohar facing extended vessel waits, congestion is emerging as a broader regional problem rather than an isolated port bottleneck.

Rhine recovers slightly from record lows, but disruption persists

Europe is facing a different type of logistics bottleneck. The disruption is particularly significant for Germany’s chemicals and industrial sectors, which rely heavily on the Rhine to transport raw materials and finished products. Water levels on the Rhine have recovered slightly after falling to historic lows, but navigation remains heavily constrained on one of the continent’s most important industrial transport corridors.

At Kaub, a critical chokepoint for Rhine navigation, the gauge recovered to around 14 cm on August 19 after falling to about 5 cm earlier in the week, according to Reuters. Despite the improvement, levels remain close to record lows and vessels continue to operate with sharply reduced loads. Further relief could be on the way, however, as current forecasts suggest a significant recovery in Rhine water levels over the next three weeks, potentially allowing many of the existing navigation restrictions to be lifted.

Panama remains vulnerable to water constraints

Pressure also persists at the Panama Canal, where water availability remains a key constraint on vessel operations.

The canal has been managing vessel drafts as strengthening El Niño conditions increase concerns over water availability. Current Panama Canal Authority indicators show maximum permitted drafts of 48.5 feet for Neopanamax vessels and 39.5 feet for Panamax vessels. This has already pushed CMA CGM to introduce surcharges from the Far East to the US East Coast and US Gulf.

The Middle East crisis has meanwhile altered global shipping patterns and increased the importance of alternative trade corridors, adding another source of uncertainty for vessel operators. While canal authorities have sought to avoid significant reductions in daily transit capacity, prolonged dry conditions could keep draft and cargo restrictions in focus.

Asian ports reopen after storms, but backlogs linger

Weather-related closures at major Asian ports have largely eased, but their knock-on effects continue to disrupt schedules.

Severe rainfall and storms earlier in August caused temporary interruptions across parts of eastern China, including the Shanghai and Zhejiang regions. While port operations have resumed, logistics updates indicate that Shanghai and Ningbo continue to face vessel backlogs, high yard utilization and schedule disruptions as terminals work through accumulated cargo.

Waiting times at Shanghai have reached as much as 12 days in some cases, while vessel bunching and cargo rollovers remain a risk at affected Chinese ports. The situation suggests that the immediate weather disruption has passed, but the resulting congestion has yet to clear fully.

Unlike Hormuz or the Rhine, the problems do not amount to a sustained region-wide shutdown of Asian container gateways. However, the lingering backlog illustrates how short-lived weather disruptions can continue to affect sailing schedules well after ports reopen.

Bab el-Mandeb traffic improves, but Red Sea remains fragile

Conditions around Bab el-Mandeb have shown some improvement following the sharp disruption triggered by Houthi threats against Saudi-linked shipping.

Around 30 commodity vessels crossed Bab el-Mandeb over the latest weekend, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters, up from 19 during the previous weekend. However, no tracked Saudi oil shipments passed through the waterway, highlighting the continued impact of security concerns on regional energy flows.

The recovery therefore points to an adjustment in broader vessel traffic rather than a return to normal conditions. Continued Houthi threats and attacks on commercial shipping mean the risk of renewed disruption remains substantial.

Suez comeback gains ground as Gemini expands return

Against that backdrop, the gradual return to the Suez Canal has continued. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been restoring selected Gemini Cooperation services to the trans-Suez route after previously diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

The AE15 Asia-Europe service has returned to the Suez route, while the carriers have also made the trans-Suez routing of the AE19 service a structural change, replacing the longer Cape of Good Hope route.

The shift is becoming increasingly significant. Maersk said in August that four of its 13 services normally operating through the Red Sea and Suez Canal had returned to the corridor, representing roughly one-third of its normal traffic through the route. The carrier nevertheless continues to describe the return as gradual and dependent on security conditions.

The developments point to a cautious normalization rather than a full-scale restoration of pre-crisis shipping patterns, with carriers retaining the flexibility to adjust routes if security conditions deteriorate again.

Global network remains fragmented despite pockets of normalization

Taken together, the latest developments suggest that global shipping is adapting to disruption rather than returning to normal. While some pressure points are showing tentative improvement, persistent geopolitical risks, weather-related constraints and congestion continue to disrupt schedules and reshape cargo flows across major trade corridors. The simultaneous presence of multiple bottlenecks also means that relief in one part of the network can shift pressure elsewhere, leaving global supply chains vulnerable to renewed disruptions and keeping schedule reliability under strain.