Two weeks into the war: Asia and Türkiye bear the brunt of petrochemical shock

Two weeks into the Middle East war, the ripple effects across the global petrochemical chain are becoming increasingly clear. The region’s role as a key exporter of crude oil, LNG, propane and polyolefins has quickly transmitted supply shocks to markets around the world. Prices for feedstocks, monomers and polymers have all moved sharply higher as supply risks and logistics disruptions ripple through the chain.

While the impact is global, early market reactions suggest that Asia and Türkiye are feeling the brunt of the disruption.

Gulf closures choke the main export corridor, Red Sea offers only limited relief

The first shock came from logistics. The Persian Gulf — one of the world’s most critical export corridors for energy and petrochemicals — has effectively been cut off from normal container flows as security risks and operational restrictions mounted.

With several Gulf ports including Jubail, Dammam and Jebel Ali disrupted, shipments that normally feed Asian markets have been severely curtailed. Producers and traders have attempted to reroute cargo through Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports such as Jeddah and King Abdullah, but this solution offers only limited relief.

Cargo must first cross the kingdom via inland trucking before reaching these ports, a process constrained by limited truck availability and higher costs. Even once shipments reach the Red Sea, shipping options remain restricted.

Northbound routes through the Suez Canal toward Europe are still possible albeit with big limitations given the tighter feeder vessel availability and irregular container connections.

However, the route to Asia is far more problematic. Vessels would need to pass through the southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the most sensitive maritime chokepoints in the conflict. As a result, direct services toward Asia have largely disappeared, sharply reducing the flow of Middle Eastern polymers into Asian markets.



Asia feels the tightest squeeze

For Asia, the disruption has quickly moved beyond higher prices to operational disruptions across the petrochemical chain.

The region relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy and feedstocks, and the sudden supply shock has triggered widespread production cuts and force majeure declarations at steam crackers and downstream units. Producers are struggling with soaring feedstock costs and tightening availability of LPG, naphtha and other inputs.

Governments are also beginning to intervene. In India, authorities have prioritized household gas consumption, limiting supplies available to industrial users. Across Southeast Asia, governments are tightening energy-saving measures and preparing emergency responses to manage potential shortages.

With shipments curtailed and feedstock costs surging, polymer markets in Asia have reacted sharply, amplifying the pressure on import-dependent economies in the region.

Türkiye also highly exposed

Türkiye is another market where the shock is being felt strongly. The country has limited domestic petrochemical production and remains a net importer across most polymer grades, making it highly sensitive to supply disruptions and cost increases.

As Middle Eastern cargoes become harder to access and feedstock costs surge globally, polymer prices in Türkiye have risen rapidly, reflecting both tighter availability and higher import costs.

Early takeaway from the conflict

Two weeks into the war, the message across petrochemical markets is increasingly evident: supply shocks originating in the Middle East are reverberating globally. The pain is there but it is uneven.