Asia’s PVC markets in further disarray as India puts off ADD hearing

The confusion in the Indian PVC market has further deepened by the latest news of a government panel postponing its oral hearing on anti-dumping duties (ADD), originally scheduled for December 4, without notifying a new date. This uncertainty has also impacted players in other Asian markets, particularly exporters to India, who have long awaited clarity on the ADD situation.

Provisional anti-dumping duties were notified by the Indian government on November 5 after a six-month probe into S-PVC imports from China, the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Thailand. Duties vary by origin and producer, ranging from $82-167/ton for Chinese PVC imports, $25-163/ton for Taiwanese, $54-147/ton for Japanese, $51-161/ton for South Korean, $53-184/ton for Thai, and $164-339/ton for the US imports.

Is the ADD hearing now set for Dec 11?

Market participants across Asia are keenly waiting for clarity to emerge on the ADD numbers announced. Many players have avoided market activity due to the prevailing uncertainty about the final hearing outcome. This market lull is expected to persist until the rescheduled oral hearing provides clearer direction.

“As per information we have from our sources in Delhi, the hearing is now expected on December 11, although we’re still waiting for official confirmation,” a major player in India said.

Players at a loss on future market direction

The delay has sparked speculation about behind-the-scenes discussions between government officials and major players regarding the provisional duties. This has only confounded the prevailing confusion in the market regarding the development.

A major trader in India lamented, “No one knows what to do other than holding off on both sales and purchases, and this will continue for one more week. This uncertainty is certainly not good for the market. No player can operate in a vacuum, without knowing what’s in store ahead,” he added.

Indian prices continue to trend higher

Despite the uncertainty, most players agree that S-PVC import prices in India will rise once the ADD regime is finalized. “However, once the ADD rates are made public, we may see exporters to India lowering their base prices with a view to accommodate Indian buyers to some extent, which means other Asian prices may need to fall further,” the trader said.

Thus, pending clarity on the development, Indian PVC import prices have trended higher while markets in the rest of Asia have seen a sliding trend. This was also reflected in a Taiwanese major raising their December CIF price to India by $10/ton, while reducing the same to China and FOB Taiwan levels by $20/ton.

India’s import price delta with other Asian hubs widening

The gap between Indian import prices and those in other Asian markets continues to grow. The price delta with Southeast Asia’s CIF prices reached a near four-month high of $45/ton last week. The India-China CIF price delta also widened, increasing from $20/ton in late October to $40/ton last week.



However, traders note that the higher price gap has not made India a more attractive destination for international PVC. “The provisional ADD, if implemented in its entirety, means US imports may find it difficult to get Indian buyers. And except for a few players, we may find most Chinese players removed from the Indian import scenario,” an Indian trader said.

Could arbitrage from Europe open?

Some traders speculate that European producers may find India an appealing market, as the current ADD investigation excludes European suppliers.

“We might see inquiries from Europe after the ADD is finalized, but whether these translate into actual deals remains uncertain. This will depend on factors like origin prices, shipping logistics, and freight rates,” a trader said.