Skip to content




Markets

Asia Pacific

  • Africa

  • Egypt
  • Africa
  • (Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa)

Filter Options
Text :
Search Criteria :
Territory/Country :
Product Group/Product :
News Type :
My Favorites:

Asian PVC continues to face downward pressure; all eyes on Taiwan’s Oct pricing

by Merve Sezgün - msezgun@chemorbis.com
  • 11/09/2024 (15:03)
PVC markets in China, India, and Southeast Asia have been on a downward trajectory for nearly two months due to a combination of abundant supply and weak demand which have been exacerbated by economic headwinds in the region. While there was some initial optimism following India’s decision to delay the implementation of its BIS certification and expectations of post-monsoon demand recovery, these hopes have been overshadowed by more pressing concerns.

China’s ongoing property crisis, a steep decline in Dalian futures, and a prolonged monsoon season in both India and Southeast Asia have further pressured the markets. Consequently, despite already hovering at low levels, PVC prices have remained under pressure across these major Asian markets this week.

Chinese high season fails to boost markets

In China, local ethylene and acetylene PVC prices have continued to edge lower, driven by falling PVC futures and weak demand. Oversupply remains a significant issue, with inventories building up due to poor demand across both domestic and export markets. This downward pressure has overshadowed the early signs of a potential seasonal recovery in demand, further dampening sentiment in the PVC sector.

The weak outlook for the PVC market was compounded by unsupportive supply-demand fundamentals, particularly within China’s struggling property sector and the presence of ample inventories, making the market more sensitive to fluctuations in futures.

A source from a domestic producer noted, “The real estate sector continues to be a drag on PVC demand. With limited short-term production cuts and no clear signs of policy support, market transactions have remained flat, and industry inventory pressure persists. We expect PVC spot prices to continue fluctuating within a weak range unless a favorable policy intervention emerges.”

CIF prices already at almost 2-year lows in India

In India, players reported that the extended monsoon season has dampened construction activity, a key driver of PVC demand. A major Indian PVC producer opted to keep local offers stable this week, reflecting buyers’ cautious stance amid uncertain post-monsoon demand recovery.

According to data from the ChemOrbis Price Index, India’s import PVC K67 market is already hovering around the lowest levels since November 2022. This has led to some discussions among players that the market may have reached its bottom. However, this week saw further price cuts in offers from China, at around $730-740/ton CIF India, cash.

SE Asia struggles with lack of demand

In Southeast Asia, PVC offers continued to trend lower due to persistent oversupply and lackluster demand. In addition to the impact of the monsoon, economic slowdowns in key regional markets like Indonesia and Vietnam have also contributed to weak PVC demand.

An Indonesian converter mentioned that despite the sharp September offer cuts by the Taiwanese major, buyers remain cautious about re-entering the market, fearing further price declines. Meanwhile, a trader in the Philippines noted that both domestic and import offers slid lower again this week, and regional demand has remained stagnant for a prolonged period.

Taiwanese major’s October pricing decision in focus

The major Taiwanese producer is expected to announce its October PVC prices for all Asian regions next week. The producer had sharply reduced offers for September by $50-110/ton, bringing them down to $705/ton FOB Taiwan, $780/ton CFR China, $800/ton CFR India, and $805/ton CFR Southeast Asia. Players are closely monitoring this upcoming announcement, as it is likely to set the tone for market sentiment in the coming month.

A source from the major producer said, “Our PVC offers for October shipments might be announced next week. The market remains quiet and stable at present. Supply continues to be ample, while demand remains weak but is relatively stable compared to last month. For the Indian market, demand is still weak due to the ongoing rainy season. We need to monitor the market after the rainy season ends next month.”

Challenges persist, awaiting post-monsoon demand

While the upcoming October price announcement from the major Taiwanese producer could provide some direction, PVC markets are likely to remain under pressure in the near term unless there is a notable improvement in demand. Regional players are adopting a cautious approach, focusing on managing inventories and closely monitoring the market for any signs of recovery after the monsoon season.
Free Trial
Member Login