ChemOrbis 2nd Polyolefins Event: Global Economy May Grow 3.5% in 2015
Over the next 6 years, world output will increase $41.5 trillion with more than 70% of growth coming from emerging & developing economies despite a slowdown in growth in major developing economies.
As for the next ten years, global growth will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, which will account for 76.5% of the increase in GDP during this period in line with the shift of the economic center of gravity from the Atlantic towards Asia.
“The global economy will be affected by various developments including surplus oil output, the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the euro and the yen. Plus, the US has exceeded growth expectations while most other economies are growing below expectations,” said Necmettin Kaymaz. Sharply lower oil prices could spur global growth and are favorable for net oil importers.
Falling oil prices will have a positive impact on many economies, including Mediterranean economies such as Turkey, while oil producers will be negatively affected.
Developing countries in the Mediterranean region will have robust economic growth while developed economies in the region will struggle to sustain growth. Egypt, Turkey and Italy are forecasted to see 4.6%, 3.5% and 1% GPD growths, respectively, for 2015-2020.
Regarding the impact on the Turkish economy, which depends on oil imports, a $10 decrease in the oil price per barrel may boost Turkey’s GDP by 0.3 percentage points, decrease inflation by 0.5% and decrease Turkey’s current account deficit/GDP ratio by 0.5%.
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