ChemOrbis 4th Turkey Petrochemical Conference: What will be the impact of TTIP on Turkey?
Dr. Serdar Altay, Director of Sectoral and Strategic Analysis at the Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey (ISPAT) highlighted during the ChemOrbis 4th Turkey Petrochemical Conference that the possible impact of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) between the US and the European Union should be assessed considering the differences in economic developments and trade structures of both sides.
The US and the EU are two major economic powers entering into TTIP with both economic and geopolitical motivations. “The agreement is likely to be put into effect in 2017 and it will be a new generation FTA that aims to create a barrier-free transatlantic marketplace,” Altay clarified. In 2013, trade of goods from the EU to the US was €290 billion while it was €196 billion in the opposite direction.
The TTIP is anticipated to boost total exports of the EU by 6% and of the US by 8%. By 2017, it will lead to a 0.5% growth in the EU’s GDP (€119 billion/year) and 0.4% growth in the US GDP (€95 billion/year). As for political motivations, both sides intend to set a joint regulatory hegemony and reshape the global trading system, pivoting to China particularly.
TTIP will be a “North-North” FTA whereas Turkey is a developing country in the global South. Based on the World Bank figures, the US’ GDP was USD17.4 billion while the EU’s GDP was USD18.4 billion compared with Turkey’s figure of USD800 million in 2014.
Another difference is related to the structure of Turkey’s trade with the US and the EU, Altay underlined. The EU is the top trading partner of Turkey although the region’s share within Turkey’s exports has come down from 58.1% to 43.5% over the past decade, according to TurkStat data.
“Entering TTIP might positively contribute to Turkey’s GDP and exports, whereas in case of exclusion, this might cause negative welfare impacts on Turkey,” Altay stated.
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