China’s ethylene-based K67 prices hit around 16-year lows

China’s export and local ethylene-based PVC K67-68 markets reached the lowest levels since 2008-2009 last week, while prices for acetylene-based K67 plunged to near nine-year lows. Persistently weak demand at home, along with falling futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and the supply overhang, pushed sellers to offer fresh discounts on both local and export prices.

Persistent oversupply and weak demand

China’s local and export PVC prices have continued to decline, influenced by falling futures and weak demand. Oversupply remains a significant issue, with inventories building up due to sluggish demand across both domestic and export markets. This ongoing pressure has overshadowed early signs of a potential seasonal recovery, further dampening sentiment in the PVC sector. China’s struggling property sector and the ample inventory levels have made the market highly sensitive to fluctuations in futures prices.

A source from a domestic producer commented, “The real estate sector continues to dampen PVC demand. With limited short-term production cuts and no clear policy support, market transactions have remained flat, and inventory pressures persist. Demand from India has also been affected by heavy monsoons and changes in import policies.”

A trader highlighted the lack of macroeconomic support while supply levels remain high, stating, “PVC markets are expected to continue operating weakly. Both domestic and international consumption show no significant improvement. Market transactions are dull, and inventory pressure persists.”

Lowest levels in many years

According to ChemOrbis Price Index, for the week ending on September 13, ethylene-based PVC K67 export prices were assessed $10/ton lower at $680-700/ton FOB China, cash. The average of this range marked the lowest level since March 2009. The weekly average of local ethylene-based prices in dollar terms at $788/ton ex-warehouse China, cash including VAT, meanwhile, marked the lowest level since November 2008.

As for the acetylene-based K67, export prices were assessed stable to $5/ton lower at $680-695/ton FOB last week, reaching the lowest since February 2016. The weekly average of local prices in dollar terms was assessed at $735/ton, the lowest since January 2016.