Firming in Türkiye’s import PVC market cools off in Nov, local prices stay strong
by Merve Madakbaşı - mmadakbasi@chemorbis.com
Import PVC prices moved up in September and October as tightening supply and unfavorable netbacks boosted seller confidence, prompting buyers to replenish stocks. However, the upward trend faltered in November as US prices declined amid concerns over potentially higher supply following India’s preliminary anti-dumping duties on most import origins. Nonetheless, the local market held strong mainly due to tight prompt availability.
Gap between duty-free and dutiable K67 reaches $125
The divergence between dutiable and duty-free PVC markets has resulted in a two-tier market this month. Accordingly, American PVC K67 has receded by $40/ton, or 5%, from a month ago on a weekly average, according to ChemOrbis data. Traders attempted to lift US K67 prices as high as $800/ton CIF, but mounting resistance from consumers forced them to lower their late-October sell ideas.
In contrast, sellers reported stable to slightly higher prices for Egyptian and European deals, which are not subject to duties. Contributing to this firmness were reduced allocations from nearby Europe due to some turnarounds. Additionally, certain European producers redirected their limited K67 cargoes to other markets, deterred by unfavorable margins in Türkiye.
This week, ChemOrbis data indicated the widest gap between dutiable and duty-free K67 since July 2022, with the premium for the latter reaching $125/ton.
US PVC K67 trades at low-$700s/ton CIF
In the dutiable market, PVC K67 was assessed stable to $10/ton lower on the week at $720-750/ton CIF, cash since jitters over potentially rising stocks at US producers remained intact. A couple of traders reported being able to obtain $710/ton for December shipment cargos while this was not confirmed by the wider market at the time of publication.
Projections on upcoming trend diverge for American PVC
Some players expect additional discounts for this origin next month, citing not only the impact of preliminary measures on import PVC by the key Indian market but also year-end stock clearances among sellers. In the first nine months of 2024, the USA was Türkiye’s largest supplier, with sales totaling 143,000 tons, increasing its market share by 3% year-on-year to reach 23%.
At the same time, a converter commented, “We have not felt much supply pressure on American PVC producers as the imminent Christmas holiday will disrupt material flow in the coming term. Offers may not change much next month amid low netbacks here. Yet, price gains may be postponed to early 2025.”
US K67 prices had hit bottom at a weekly average of $750/ton CIF in December 2023, as per ChemOrbis data.
Tightness underpins local market
On the other side of the coin, some players expect the local market to hold strong in the near term. This is based on tight supply inside which may keep the sellers’ hand strong regardless of the state of demand. “Both distributors and the domestic producer, Petkim are free from sale pressure,” a player said. The locally-held PVC K67 market gained $20/ton (nearly 2%) over the last four weeks.
European volumes under watch prior to Christmas
The duty-free PVC K67 range was assessed steady at $840-880/ton CIF Türkiye, cash. Following a few deals at $830/ton CIF for Egyptian cargos, most offers centered on $840-860/ton for this origin. A profile manufacturer secured some volumes at $840/ton for December arrival. Restricted supply led to scarce European offers into the second half of the month, meanwhile.
South Korean K67 was priced close the $900/ton threshold on cash equivalent basis supported by firmer shipping costs ahead of the year-end festivities. Most buyers were shunning distant cargos, however, citing low season, cautious consumption and cash flow problems, as well as their enroute cargos.
Turkish players have begun to focus on the December outlook seeking global clues. Asian players project a Taiwanese major to issue rollovers in India under the shadow of additional duties. European converters are reluctant to pay any increases given a lack of supply concerns and muted derivatives within the bloc. Whether ex-USG cargos will continue to offer attractive prices, and Europe will ramp up exports will be pivotal for Turkish players into the last month of the year. If US sellers undergo sales pressure, more cargos may find their way to Türkiye, Africa, and Latin America, which would widen the gap with European PVC prices further, players comment.
Gap between duty-free and dutiable K67 reaches $125
The divergence between dutiable and duty-free PVC markets has resulted in a two-tier market this month. Accordingly, American PVC K67 has receded by $40/ton, or 5%, from a month ago on a weekly average, according to ChemOrbis data. Traders attempted to lift US K67 prices as high as $800/ton CIF, but mounting resistance from consumers forced them to lower their late-October sell ideas.
In contrast, sellers reported stable to slightly higher prices for Egyptian and European deals, which are not subject to duties. Contributing to this firmness were reduced allocations from nearby Europe due to some turnarounds. Additionally, certain European producers redirected their limited K67 cargoes to other markets, deterred by unfavorable margins in Türkiye.
This week, ChemOrbis data indicated the widest gap between dutiable and duty-free K67 since July 2022, with the premium for the latter reaching $125/ton.
US PVC K67 trades at low-$700s/ton CIF
In the dutiable market, PVC K67 was assessed stable to $10/ton lower on the week at $720-750/ton CIF, cash since jitters over potentially rising stocks at US producers remained intact. A couple of traders reported being able to obtain $710/ton for December shipment cargos while this was not confirmed by the wider market at the time of publication.
Projections on upcoming trend diverge for American PVC
Some players expect additional discounts for this origin next month, citing not only the impact of preliminary measures on import PVC by the key Indian market but also year-end stock clearances among sellers. In the first nine months of 2024, the USA was Türkiye’s largest supplier, with sales totaling 143,000 tons, increasing its market share by 3% year-on-year to reach 23%.
At the same time, a converter commented, “We have not felt much supply pressure on American PVC producers as the imminent Christmas holiday will disrupt material flow in the coming term. Offers may not change much next month amid low netbacks here. Yet, price gains may be postponed to early 2025.”
US K67 prices had hit bottom at a weekly average of $750/ton CIF in December 2023, as per ChemOrbis data.
Tightness underpins local market
On the other side of the coin, some players expect the local market to hold strong in the near term. This is based on tight supply inside which may keep the sellers’ hand strong regardless of the state of demand. “Both distributors and the domestic producer, Petkim are free from sale pressure,” a player said. The locally-held PVC K67 market gained $20/ton (nearly 2%) over the last four weeks.
European volumes under watch prior to Christmas
The duty-free PVC K67 range was assessed steady at $840-880/ton CIF Türkiye, cash. Following a few deals at $830/ton CIF for Egyptian cargos, most offers centered on $840-860/ton for this origin. A profile manufacturer secured some volumes at $840/ton for December arrival. Restricted supply led to scarce European offers into the second half of the month, meanwhile.
South Korean K67 was priced close the $900/ton threshold on cash equivalent basis supported by firmer shipping costs ahead of the year-end festivities. Most buyers were shunning distant cargos, however, citing low season, cautious consumption and cash flow problems, as well as their enroute cargos.
Turkish players have begun to focus on the December outlook seeking global clues. Asian players project a Taiwanese major to issue rollovers in India under the shadow of additional duties. European converters are reluctant to pay any increases given a lack of supply concerns and muted derivatives within the bloc. Whether ex-USG cargos will continue to offer attractive prices, and Europe will ramp up exports will be pivotal for Turkish players into the last month of the year. If US sellers undergo sales pressure, more cargos may find their way to Türkiye, Africa, and Latin America, which would widen the gap with European PVC prices further, players comment.
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