Freight rates outlook for 2025: Another rocky year ahead after 2024 turmoil
by Elif Şahinduran - esahinduran@chemorbis.com
by Esra Ersöz - eersoz@chemorbis.com 
Global freight rates have faced tumultuous shifts throughout 2024. Although rates peaked in mid-July, they remained 132% above the previous year’s pre-Red Sea crisis levels as of late December. As 2025 approaches, the looming US port strike on January 15 coupled with Trump’s reelection and highly possible shift in trade flows amidst barriers and extra tariffs offers too many unknowns for another year ahead for freight rates in mainstream routes.
A brief overview of 2024
A year of highs takes the industry back to pandemic-era
Freight rates for container shipping started the new year with steep increases amid tensions in the Red Sea. Rates peaked in January and corrected down till May, when a surge in shipments from China sparked a rebound amid concerns over potential tariff hikes and new trade restrictions on electric vehicles (EVs).
The price rally in freight rates were extended to July amid ongoing disruptions in supply chains, mainly the bottlenecks in Asian ports caused by lingering Red Sea diversions. Before peaking in mid-July, rates were at high levels not seen since the pandemic era.
From this point, rates dropped steadily until late October, when they rose again, driven by heightened year-end purchasing, increased blank sailings, and November 1 rate hikes by shipping companies. However, this uptick was short-lived as rates fell once more in mid-November.

Drewry: Stable or higher as of year-end
As of December 12, Drewry’s world container index remained stable at $3,529 per 40ft container. This rate was 132% higher compared to the same period last year and followed a 6% increase on December 5.
Drewry’s China to Northwest Europe route increased by 2% last week to $4,855 per 40 ft container, while rates to Southern Europe gained 1%, bringing the rate to $5,526 per 40 ft container.
Drewry’s China to US West Coast rates declined by 4% last week to $3,582 per 40 ft container, while US East Coast rates increased by 1% to $5,199 per 40 ft container.
What awaits rates in Q1 2025?
US port strike is imminent
The biggest threat to freight rates in the near term is the anticipated strike at US ports. In October, the contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance Ltd. (USMX) were extended into January 15, 2025, allowing both sides to address unresolved issues. This deal led to the resumption of operations at East and Gulf Coast ports following a three-day strike. However, negotiations between the ILA and USMX broke down in November over automation issues.
As of December, hopes of resolving the stand-off between dockworkers and employers at US East and Gulf Coast ports were fading, with neither side compromising on automation. With the dispute remaining unresolved, concerns over a potential port strike continues to intensify. Industry leaders warn that a potential January strike could have far-reaching consequences, disrupting supply chains more severely than the October closures.
Trump’s reelection raises tariff concerns
Donald Trump’s reelection has sparked concerns over the future of ocean freight rates. Trump has pledged to impose new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada immediately upon taking office as president on January 20. He proposed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada until they address drug smuggling and border issues, and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. According to Xeneta , the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, ocean container shipping freight rates spiked more than 70%.
US retailers had already been accelerating purchases due to a shortened holiday season and global shipping delays, but the looming mid-January port strike and planned tariff increases by President-elect Donald Trump are prompting even bigger importers to speed up their buying. Indeed, the United States’ major ports saw a surge in activity in November and December, with inbound cargo traffic set to hit new records, according to the National Retail Federation.
Pre-Chinese New Year demand surge
The upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, 2025, is another driver that will drive rates higher in early 2025. According to Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, “Rates may already be increasing on pre-Lunar New Year demand as Asia-Europe/Mediterranean shippers need to ensure they move sufficient inventory out of Asia before the holiday slowdown or risk extended waits due to diversions around the Cape of Good Hope for containers that move only after LNY.”
For Levine, ex-Asia rates will most likely increase since seasonal demand rises before and just after Chinese New Year. However, capacity increases on these lanes may challenge how high rates will climb – and then ease later in February.
How about the rest of 2025? Will ocean freight rates remain elevated at pandemic highs?
Although the freight markets have been on a steady downturn for the past 5 months with the world container index slumping by almost 50% since the July peak, average freight rates out of China to western bloc have come down only halfway through the cumulative gains driven by the Red-Sea crisis that first erupted back in December 2023.
In other words, current freight rates from China to westbound destinations are still almost double the rates reported right before the Red-Sea disruptions. This means spot freight rates are still within the price zone of the pandemic era, which ended around the end of 2022 before markets were back to normal for most of 2023.

Meanwhile, shipping freight rates within Asia also joined this Red-Sea rally, albeit not directly affected by it and not to the same degree as the westbound destinations, but now they are almost back to their normal levels.
Not only Asian routes, but also the rates from the two big exporters, namely the United States and Saudi Arabia, have seen notable changes over the course of this past year.
Considering the excess capacities built in shipping industry and possible trade barriers that will hit shipping demand on one side and the continued disruptions in the Red Sea, seasonal buying as well as blank sailings on the other, the shipping industry is set to face prolonged challenges for the rest of 2025.
ChemOrbis, in collaboration with Drewry, will provide freight rates along key trade routes for polymers across the most efficient port pairings. This new feature will give you quick access to the latest monthly data, along with historical trends, all presented in easy-to-understand graphical formats. Stay tuned for an exclusive look at the freight rates for the top port pairings in the petrochemical industry, coming soon!
From this vantage point, ChemOrbis will be your trusted partner in tracking the dynamic shifts in freight rates across key petrochemical trade routes throughout the coming year. In collaboration with Drewry, we will provide monthly index updates, measured in US dollars per ton, to help you stay on top of industry trends.
A brief overview of 2024
A year of highs takes the industry back to pandemic-era
Freight rates for container shipping started the new year with steep increases amid tensions in the Red Sea. Rates peaked in January and corrected down till May, when a surge in shipments from China sparked a rebound amid concerns over potential tariff hikes and new trade restrictions on electric vehicles (EVs).
The price rally in freight rates were extended to July amid ongoing disruptions in supply chains, mainly the bottlenecks in Asian ports caused by lingering Red Sea diversions. Before peaking in mid-July, rates were at high levels not seen since the pandemic era.
From this point, rates dropped steadily until late October, when they rose again, driven by heightened year-end purchasing, increased blank sailings, and November 1 rate hikes by shipping companies. However, this uptick was short-lived as rates fell once more in mid-November.
Drewry: Stable or higher as of year-end
As of December 12, Drewry’s world container index remained stable at $3,529 per 40ft container. This rate was 132% higher compared to the same period last year and followed a 6% increase on December 5.
Drewry’s China to Northwest Europe route increased by 2% last week to $4,855 per 40 ft container, while rates to Southern Europe gained 1%, bringing the rate to $5,526 per 40 ft container.
Drewry’s China to US West Coast rates declined by 4% last week to $3,582 per 40 ft container, while US East Coast rates increased by 1% to $5,199 per 40 ft container.
What awaits rates in Q1 2025?
US port strike is imminent
The biggest threat to freight rates in the near term is the anticipated strike at US ports. In October, the contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance Ltd. (USMX) were extended into January 15, 2025, allowing both sides to address unresolved issues. This deal led to the resumption of operations at East and Gulf Coast ports following a three-day strike. However, negotiations between the ILA and USMX broke down in November over automation issues.
As of December, hopes of resolving the stand-off between dockworkers and employers at US East and Gulf Coast ports were fading, with neither side compromising on automation. With the dispute remaining unresolved, concerns over a potential port strike continues to intensify. Industry leaders warn that a potential January strike could have far-reaching consequences, disrupting supply chains more severely than the October closures.
Trump’s reelection raises tariff concerns
Donald Trump’s reelection has sparked concerns over the future of ocean freight rates. Trump has pledged to impose new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada immediately upon taking office as president on January 20. He proposed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada until they address drug smuggling and border issues, and a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. According to Xeneta , the last time Trump ramped up tariffs on Chinese imports during the trade war in 2018, ocean container shipping freight rates spiked more than 70%.
US retailers had already been accelerating purchases due to a shortened holiday season and global shipping delays, but the looming mid-January port strike and planned tariff increases by President-elect Donald Trump are prompting even bigger importers to speed up their buying. Indeed, the United States’ major ports saw a surge in activity in November and December, with inbound cargo traffic set to hit new records, according to the National Retail Federation.
Pre-Chinese New Year demand surge
The upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, 2025, is another driver that will drive rates higher in early 2025. According to Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, “Rates may already be increasing on pre-Lunar New Year demand as Asia-Europe/Mediterranean shippers need to ensure they move sufficient inventory out of Asia before the holiday slowdown or risk extended waits due to diversions around the Cape of Good Hope for containers that move only after LNY.”
For Levine, ex-Asia rates will most likely increase since seasonal demand rises before and just after Chinese New Year. However, capacity increases on these lanes may challenge how high rates will climb – and then ease later in February.
How about the rest of 2025? Will ocean freight rates remain elevated at pandemic highs?
Although the freight markets have been on a steady downturn for the past 5 months with the world container index slumping by almost 50% since the July peak, average freight rates out of China to western bloc have come down only halfway through the cumulative gains driven by the Red-Sea crisis that first erupted back in December 2023.
In other words, current freight rates from China to westbound destinations are still almost double the rates reported right before the Red-Sea disruptions. This means spot freight rates are still within the price zone of the pandemic era, which ended around the end of 2022 before markets were back to normal for most of 2023.

Meanwhile, shipping freight rates within Asia also joined this Red-Sea rally, albeit not directly affected by it and not to the same degree as the westbound destinations, but now they are almost back to their normal levels.
Not only Asian routes, but also the rates from the two big exporters, namely the United States and Saudi Arabia, have seen notable changes over the course of this past year.
Considering the excess capacities built in shipping industry and possible trade barriers that will hit shipping demand on one side and the continued disruptions in the Red Sea, seasonal buying as well as blank sailings on the other, the shipping industry is set to face prolonged challenges for the rest of 2025.
ChemOrbis, in collaboration with Drewry, will provide freight rates along key trade routes for polymers across the most efficient port pairings. This new feature will give you quick access to the latest monthly data, along with historical trends, all presented in easy-to-understand graphical formats. Stay tuned for an exclusive look at the freight rates for the top port pairings in the petrochemical industry, coming soon!
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