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Goldman Sachs: Iran deal to impact oil prices in 2016

by ChemOrbis Editorial Team -
  • 15/07/2015 (11:35)
According to media reports, Goldman Sachs has predicted that the prospective easing of sanctions on Iran following the landmark deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers (the United States, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany) would begin to impact global oil markets in 2016.

Goldman Sachs predicted that Iran’s aim to increase its oil production by 500,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) will prove overly optimistic and that the country’s oil output will actually rise between 200,000 and 400,000 bpd. “The timeline of the planned sanctions relief implies that this agreement will not have a major impact on oil prices in 2015. We view the 2016 prospects for higher OPEC production, including rising supply from Iran, as a downside risk to our oil price forecast," reported the bank.

According to Goldman Sachs, Brent crude oil prices will be around $58/barrel in 2015 and $62/barrel in 2016 while it expects NYMEX crude futures to quote at around $52/barrel this year and at $57/barrel next year.

Meanwhile, following the conclusion of the Iranian nuclear deal negotiations, the deputy of Iran’s oil minister reported that Iran will return to the global oil market with maximum capacity. The country targets to increase its exports to Europe, where it enjoyed a market share of 42-43% prior to the imposition of sanctions, and also sees great potential in Asian markets. Iran also aims to increase its crude oil output by 500,000 bpd within two months following the lifting of sanctions and by 1 million bpd six to seven months after sanctions are lifted. In June, Iran produced 2.82 million bpd, according to Reuters.
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