India’s ADD looms: Buyers pause, PVC prices stable to firm across Asia

Buyers have remained on the sidelines across Asia’s import PVC markets due to weak demand and sufficient supplies. Meanwhile, the potential announcement of anti-dumping duties (ADD) by the Indian government on PVC imports has kept prices stable to firm. Expectations of higher November offers from a major Taiwanese supplier have further supported this trend.

There has been a palpable sense of expectation in India of ADD on PVC imports being announced by the government shortly. As India is the largest importer of PVC in the world, any such duties are expected to have an impact on the rest of the Asian markets too.

“We expect the announcement to be made within the next couple of weeks,” said a PVC trader based in India. “We’re hearing all sorts of numbers being bandied about in the market, which we’d rather not discuss with the media. But what’s almost certain is that the government is moving towards imposing ADD on US and Chinese PVC imports,” he added.

Market activity subdued ahead of ADD announcement

Market activity in India has been subdued in recent weeks, with few players looking to buy or sell ahead of the ADD decision. In the meantime, November offers from the Taiwanese major, expected next week, are projected to be higher than October levels. The October offers stood at $800/ton CIF India, $780/ton CIF China, and $805/ton CIF Southeast Asia, unchanged from September. Meanwhile, the major raised its export offers by $25/ton to $730/ton FOB Taiwan.

“If the ADD is notified early next week, we may see the Taiwanese major announcing its offers shortly afterwards. We expect a price increase of up to $20/ton currently, but the increase may also depend on how prohibitive the ADD numbers are,” another trader added.

Buyers stay away fearing increased import costs

Until the ADD is confirmed, buyers are hesitant to make any moves. “No one wants to commit right now. If ADD is imposed after a deal is struck, buyers will have to bear the additional cost. There are no bids or even inquiries. As a result, sellers are also exploring other markets,” one trader noted.

Market participants also expressed concern that significant ADD on imports from China—the largest PVC supplier to India—could lead to unaffordable prices for Indian buyers. “Some of us may have to reconsider our business operations,” quipped a trader, who regularly brokers US and Chinese shipments to India. “At the same time, this could also mean more availability from the US and China in other Asian markets as their surplus would grow,” he added.

Import prices rise after Taiwanese major’s Oct announcement

Import prices have maintained a stable-to-firmer trend since a Taiwanese major kept prices stable for October in its notifications made late last month. The weekly averages of PVC K67 prices have risen by $15/ton to $770/ton CIF India, by $42/ton to $757/ton CIF Southeast Asia, and marginally by $5/ton to $755/ton CIF China.

Traders in India and Southeast Asia reported that import prices are positioned between the low-end Chinese offers and the high-end offers from the Taiwanese supplier. “Chinese export prices have increased over the past month, putting upward pressure on import prices in both India and Southeast Asia,” a trader explained. At the high end, the Taiwanese major is expected to push prices higher for November.