New year opens with mixed trends in China’s PVC markets

The start of 2025 has brought a mix of trends to China’s PVC markets. However, the theme of the markets continues to revolve around sluggish buying interest and ample availability. Alongside the lingering weakness in supply-demand fundamentals, the holiday lull has also dampened activity, as many players remain in festive mode during the Christmas and New Year holidays, further slowing the trading atmosphere.

“High production continues to result in abundant supply, even though ongoing turnarounds and exports help ease some of the pressure. Demand remains weak due to underperforming downstream sectors, slow exports of end products, and struggles in the property market. While the upcoming Spring Festival may provide a slight boost to demand, actual deals remain few and far between,” said a trader based in Hangzhou.

Chinese suppliers lower prices to compete

When compared to the previous week, Chinese sellers introduced more attractive prices, with rollovers to slight decreases for both local and export buyers. A source at a producer, who cut both their domestic and export offers, commented, “We reduced prices this week due to stagnant demand and oversupply. Market sentiment remains bearish, and the outlook is uncertain and pessimistic.”

Further pressure came from a continuous downtrend in futures markets. May PVC futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange declined by CNY119/ton ($16/ton) weekly as of January 3.

Over the week ending on January 3, local PVC prices were stable on the low ends, while the high ends saw weekly drops of CNY50-100/ton ($7-14/ton). Prices were assessed at CNY5050-5300/ton ($612-643/ton without VAT) for ethylene-based PVC and CNY4900-5050/ton ($594-612/ton without VAT) for acetylene-based K67, all on an ex-warehouse, cash, including VAT basis. These levels marked new record lows for domestic prices, which are expected to fluctuate around current levels in the short term.

Export prices saw similar trends, with ethylene-based PVC assessed stable to $10/ton lower at $635-660/ton FOB China, cash. Acetylene-based PVC remained steady at $620-640/ton with the same terms.

In the meantime, the postponement of India’s mandatory Bureau of Indian Standards certification has yet to make its presence felt, regardless of expectations of future uptick in demand from Indian buyers. Concerns over India’s pending anti-dumping duty policy also linger.

Import prices rebound from lowest since May 2020

On the other side of the coin, the import market experienced the first increase since the second half of September, according to data from ChemOrbis Price Index. Following intense year-end restocking at sharply reduced prices, US sellers raised their K67 offers to reflect the fresh start of the year, while a Taiwanese producer kept its price list unchanged at the higher end of China’s import range.



As for the first week of 2025, the import PVC K67 prices for all origins were assessed stable to $35/ton higher from a week earlier at $670-740/ton CIF China, cash. The weekly average price climbed to its one-month high, showing a slight rebound after standing at its lowest level since May 2020 in the last two weeks of 2024.