PET bottle prices rangebound at more-than-a year low in Europe; Feb signals firming

PET bottle prices in Europe have remained rangebound, with regional markets experiencing a slow start to the new year. While producers await an opportunity to increase their offers in pursuit of improved margins, subdued demand has hindered any attempts at price hikes. Spot prices currently hover at more than a-year low after following a stable to softer trend since August.

While the off-season remains in place in the northern hemisphere and consumption levels visibly shrink compared to previous years, participants are questioning if rising upstream costs and the uncompetitive pricing of imports will grant suppliers the leverage necessary to raise their offers beginning in February.

Spot PET bottle suggests no room for further discounts

According to the weekly average on ChemOrbis Price Index, spot PET bottle prices stand at around their lowest since late September 2023. Yet, participants mostly suggested that prices have stabilized, with no room for discounts amid slightly higher MEG settlement for January.



Demand patterns at a glance

January is likely to be a very calm month in terms of trading, in line with the low season. For most buyers, consumption in early 2025 is expected to remain subdued, with little indication of a sharp recovery in the near term.

The implementation of the mandatory 25% recycled content in PET bottles is not expected to cause an immediate shift in consumption. The full impact of this regulation is anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, particularly during the spring season when purchases are expected to pick up in line with the high season, and buyers will likely focus on restocking.

Looking ahead, the outlook for 2025 is one of cautious optimism, with many hoping that the market will not deteriorate further but may show gradual signs of recovery as the high season approaches. One buyer noted that demand was steady but far from robust, and he does not anticipate any significant improvement in consumption for the year.

Rising costs and delays in delivery discourage overseas purchases

The import market continues to be a source of frustration for many buyers. Due to elevated freight rates, the stronger US dollar against the euro, and extended delivery times, imports have become increasingly uncompetitive. This has made purchasing from outside Europe less appealing. This trend is expected to continue as logistical challenges, coupled with the upcoming Chinese New Year, create further obstacles to the timely delivery of imported material.

Asian PET offers last stood at or slightly below €1000/ton on a CIF basis, with delivery scheduled for March. Uncompetitive pricing continues to impede trade.

Players discuss potential pricing strategies for February

There is some optimism that prices may begin to rise starting in February or March as producers look to recover margins after a challenging period of stability or downward corrections. While February could see slight price increases, the extent of any upward shift will also depend on cost factors and the outcome of key contract settlements, particularly the PX contract.

Dwindling import supplies are another factor supporting this view. European suppliers maintain an edge, as buyers show preference for domestic sources. Concerns over delayed shipments from Asia led many buyers to opt to avoid overseas cargoes for the time being. Rising energy markets and the unfavourable euro/dollar parity also keep the import market under pressure.

Container freight rates from Asia have eased recently, which will be an important factor to watch amid Gaza ceasefire negotiations, approaching Chinese New Year holiday, Trump’s imminent inauguration and a tentative agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which represents port workers, and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX).

Buyers and distributors alike are preparing for potential price increases in the coming months. Despite this, the overall sentiment remains cautious, as European producers are wary of a slow start to 2025, with some projecting that Q1 will mirror the challenges of Q1 2024, which was a particularly weak period for the market.

While some buyers remain sceptical about any substantial price hikes, they are planning for some pre-buying in anticipation of potential increases in February. For now, however, the market is expected to remain relatively static until clearer signs of recovery emerge.