PVC prices hit three-month lows in Türkiye, what lies ahead?

In August, import PVC K67 prices have sunk to their lowest levels since May as lackluster downstream demand amid financial challenges and adequate resin supply has dragged prices further down in Türkiye. Players do not expect any major changes in the current market dynamics in the near term, as bearish September projections in Asia have weakened the sentiment. On the other hand, some sellers are hopeful for a slight improvement in demand in September.

US PVC breaks below $800 CIF for the first time since April

This week, US K67 prices fell below the $800/ton CIF threshold for the first time since April 2024, with some deals at the lower end of the dutiable range.

Dutiable PVC K67 was assessed $30-40/ton lower at $760-800/ton CIF Türkiye, cash week over week. Mostly composed of American cargoes, the range saw some transactions at or close to the low end, as some converters were more willing to use their re-export documents amid fresh price lows. Slightly lower deals, around $750/ton, were discussed but had not been confirmed by the broader market at the time of writing.

"These cargos may indicate short sales by some traders amid weaker September expectations in Asia. If sustained, the bearish trend across the region could drag ex-USG offers further down next week, considering ample Chinese supply, the monsoon in India, and falling ocean freight rates," a player opined. However, other participants confirmed that these US offers were for September shipments.



Prices slide by 8-12% since July

According to the weekly average data from ChemOrbis, duty-free K67 prices posted a cumulative decrease of $70/ton or 8% since the downturn kicked off in early July. Dutiable prices retreated by a larger amount of $105/ton or 12% in the same period led by gradual price cuts for American cargos in line with bearish trend across Asia.

Prompt supply diminishes compared to previous weeks

In the local market, the notional PVC K67 range was down by another $10/ton to 1030-1080/ton ex-warehouse Türkiye, cash including VAT this week, with competitive prices for domestic materials on the low end. The total loss in the locally-held market was $35/ton or 3% over the last six weeks.

In the meantime, several players noted that prompt K67 availability has diminished compared to last month, following distributors’ efforts to deplete their existing stocks to hedge against further declines.

Early September expectations offer a mixed bag

Prices may follow a stable to soft trend during the rest of August, with projections of lower September prices in Asia and muted derivative consumption in Türkiye amid macroeconomic struggles on one hand, and dwindling prompt supply and the ongoing summer break in Europe on the other hand. As many players have noted, the pace of activity in September will set the tone for the market, while highly volatile crude oil futures and the post-holiday scene in Europe will be closely monitored.