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PVC prices sink to multi-month lows in Türkiye with more drops in sight

by Merve Madakbaşı - mmadakbasi@chemorbis.com
  • 24/03/2023 (02:39)
Türkiye’s import and local PVC markets have not seen a respite from drops, which have been in place since late February. The main culprits behind the slide have been long supply and thin demand, let alone the impact of falling prices in Asian outlets.

Import K67 prices have eroded by 9% (around $100/ton) since prices started to retreat last month. The locally-held market has plunged almost 12% (nearly $160/ton) in the same period.

Aggressive S. Korean PVC makes a scene in import market

Sharly lower demand from the key Indian market amid rising stocks caused South Korean producers to boost their exports to Türkiye in March. K67 prices hit $900/ton CIF this week after breaking below the $1000/ton threshold in mid-month.

Whilst South Korean K67 made a scene and heated up the competition across the import market, Egyptian offers followed suit and receded by up to $80/ton just in a week to match with the low end of the market.

CIF Türkiye – Import Prices– PVC K67

US K67 talked below $880 CIF for short sales

Dutiable PVC K67 prices were assessed $10-20/ton lower from last week at 880-900/ton CIF, subject to applicable duties.

“The recent shutdown at Shintech did not have an impact on sentiment,” players argued. Some traders were heard to be offering $850-860/ton for short sales, but this was not confirmed at the time of press.

Local market back to early Dec levels

The combination of ample supply and thin buying interest led to renewed decreases in the local market. Adding to the bearishness were cash problems. Accordingly, K67 sank by $40-60/ton to be assessed at 1180-1260/ton ex-warehouse Türkiye, including VAT week over week. Prices as low as $1100-1150/ton were also speculated in the shade of tight liquidity.

ChemOrbis data suggested that local PVC K67 prices have hit their lowest level since early December 2022 on a weekly average.

Demand tied to needs on weak April expectations

PVC is prone to new drops moving into April in tandem with bearish Asian markets. Moreover, players do not expect a solid recovery in demand until summer given the upcoming Eid al-Fitr holidays and elections, let alone mediocre derivative demand and cash constraints.

The impact of recent falls in global oil futures, which have dived by around 9% in a month, on downstream PVC is yet to be seen. Fresh offers from Europe are expected to surface starting next week. Prices from the region may come lower under the pressure of the nearing Easter holiday despite lower run rates.
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