Rising India PVC prices diverge from rest of Asia ahead of ADDs

With clarity on the impending anti-dumping duties (ADD) on import PVC expected to emerge in India by next week, market players are looking at prices trending higher in the country, while the rest of Asia sees a slide in the month ahead.

A major Taiwanese producer’s latest notifications to Asian buyers, raising its December price to India by $10/ton from the current month to $810/ton CIF, while lowering CIF prices to China by $20/ton to $760/ton, reflect such a view. Traders said the major’s price to Vietnam was even lower, below $740/ton CIF, while CIF Southeast Asia offers stood at $790/ton, reflecting a regional price disparity.

India’s import prices rise; rest of Asia falls

“It has become increasingly clear that the imposition of ADD would raise both import and local prices of PVC in India. As market resistance to such hikes grow in India, which is bound to happen, we see an accommodating stance by sellers to Indian buyers as FOB levels too fall. This will also mean falling CIF prices to other regions like Southeast Asia and China,” said a PVC trader based in Mumbai.

Provisional anti-dumping duties were notified by the Indian government on November 5 after a six-month investigation into S-PVC imports from China, the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Thailand. Duties vary by origin and producer, ranging from $82-167/ton for Chinese PVC imports, $25-163/ton for Taiwanese, $54-147/ton for Japanese, $51-161/ton for South Korean, $53-184/ton for Thai, and $164-339/ton for the US imports.

ADD clarity to emerge after official hearing

Market participants across Asia are keenly waiting for clarity to emerge on the ADD numbers announced. Players stayed away as nobody wanted to be hit with extra payments after cargoes were shipped from their origins. They expected an ongoing market lull to continue until there is more clarity on the duties after an oral hearing on the ADD scheduled for December 4. “We expect such clarity to emerge after the hearing. The final notifications should be out in a couple of days after the hearing,” the trader said.

According to the trader, the Indian domestic market continued to have ample availability. “We don’t see much activity on the import front, but materials have been changing hands in the local markets, although not for high volumes,” another trader said.

Local prices have risen by about 3% over the last one month, with traders attributing it to expectations of import prices rising ahead of the ADD implementation.



CIF India K67 prices rose to a near-four-month high as the new Taiwanese prices appeared at the high end of the current week’s price assessments. Low-end prices also rose, with players noting very few offers at the mid-$700s/ton CIF India. At the same time, Southeast Asian import price assessments fell to their lowest in slightly more than two weeks and Chinese import prices to the lowest level in about 11 months.

Chinese export prices dive

The most significant price movement has been noted in China’s export and local prices, which have moved to multi-year lows recently. According to the weekly average data obtained from ChemOrbis Price Index, the local price of ethylene-based PVC in USD terms has reached its lowest point since ChemOrbis started to collect data in 2008. Export prices, averaging currently $665/ton are also at their lowest since March 2009.

“Import numbers to India have shown that China has been the country’s biggest trade partner as far as PVC is concerned. Although the import volumes from China have declined recently ahead as players waited for clarity in the anti-dumping duties, we see FOB prices being adjusted downwards to accommodate Indian buyers,” the Mumbai-based trader said.

“Exports to India have been very challenging as we expect higher anti-dumping duties on Chinese PVC in line with the provisional numbers announced,” a source at a major Chinese producer said. The current week has seen local prices stable, but we have reduced FOB offers further downwards. Local demand has stayed weak although supply has stayed balanced because of several plant maintenance shutdowns. Downstream plants continue to operate at reduced rates,” he added.

Southeast Asia prepares for Chinese export influx

In Southeast Asia, overall demand remained weak due to ample availability and slow downstream trade. Players are bracing for an influx of Chinese exports, redirected due to prohibitive ADD measures in India.

"Demand remains weak. Most players don’t want to keep high inventories ahead of the year end as demand for end-products stays sluggish,” a regional trader said.