Stats: EU27’s H1 2024 polymer imports down on year; PVC sees sharpest decline

H1 2024 polymer imports to the EU27 from extra-union partners fell by 6% compared to the same period of 2023. Total polymer imports in the first half declined to around 4.7 million tons, marking the lowest volume since 2021.

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard Pro, polymer imports in January-June period posted yearly decreases varying in size depending on the product, except for PS. Meanwhile, PVC imports experienced the sharpest decline, down by 33% from January-June 2023.

The ongoing decline in imports was driven by poor derivative consumption and supply chain disruptions. The shipping turmoil that started by December 2023 amid geopolitical tensions took its toll on import flows across the globe, let alone certain trade barriers to protect local industries within the bloc.

In H1 2024, the USA (1 million tons), Saudi Arabia (742,000 tons), South Korea (590,000 tons), Türkiye (295,000 tons) and Vietnam (287,000 tons) were the primary polymer suppliers. The US remained the main supplier despite a yearly drop of 4% in its imports, with the lion’s share at 21%. Notably, imports from Türkiye and Vietnam saw significant gains of 10% and 42% from H1 2023. Mexico also staged an increase of 15% to be listed among the top ten suppliers. In contrast, China faced a dramatic decline of 75% during this period while Egypt witnessed a smaller drop of around 20%.

It is important to note that the EU27 data exclude intra-Europe trade, focusing solely on trade with partners outside the union of 27 countries.



Overall PS imports rise as an exception

Data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard reveal that the EU27’s cumulative H1 PP imports fell by 5% on the year to around 975,000 tons. PE imports inched down by 1% on the year to around 2.3 million tons, marking the lowest volume since 2018. PVC imports plunged by 33% on the year in H1 2024 after gradually increasing in the previous three years at above 285,000 tons.

PET imports posted a yearly drop of 14% to drop below 815,000 tons, while ABS imports fell by 5% to 125,000 tons. On the contrary, PS imports rose by 12% on the year to breach 170,000 tons in H1 2024.

PE imports from Canada, Mexico hit record-highs

The top 5 PE exporters to the EU27 in H1 2024 were the USA with 825,000 tons, holding a market share of more than 35%, followed by Saudi Arabia with a 19% share, South Korea, Qatar and the United Kingdom. Shares for the last three countries stood respectively at around 9%, 7% and 6%.

Unsurprisingly, the US remained the largest supplier to Europe with the lion’s share, with import volumes increasing by 5% y-o-y. South Korea maintained its third place in the ranking, while imports increased by 10%. Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico moved up on the list as imports surged respectively by 56% and 61%, respectively. PE volumes in the first half of the year from both countries hit record-high levels since ChemOrbis started to compile data in early 2000s.

However, ChemOrbis Stats Wizard Pro showed that imports from Qatar, the UK, Egypt, Brazil, Norway, Türkiye and Serbia fell by 5-30% amid production hiccups and logistic mishaps.

PP imports from Vietnam surge despite shipping turmoil

Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the UK remained the three largest PP suppliers, with a combined share of around 60%. Vietnam and the US moved up on the list with imports rising by 34% and 10%, dethroning Israel and Egypt that saw imports declining by 31% and 44% on the year.

The significant increase in PP imports from Vietnam despite the shipping crisis may reflect the pressure of increasingly competitive Chinese offers in the region, with Vietnam bearing the brunt of Chinese overcapacity the most deeply.

Imports from Kazakhstan more than doubled from 9,000 tons in H1 2023 to 20,000 tons in H1 2024, ranking tenth on the list. The entry of Kazakh polypropylene into the European market can be attributed to both sanctions imposed on Russian goods and strategic investments within Kazakhstan.

Last but not least, import from South Africa and India saw sharp drops of 29% and 44% in the first half of 2024.

PVC imports inclined to drop further

The US and Mexico remained the union’s two largest PVC suppliers with a cumulative share of 64% in H1 2024. While imports from Mexico eroded by 5% from H1 2023, US PVC imports declined by 46% during this period. Egypt and Norway moved up on the list, even though H1 imports fell respectively by 11% and 14%. However, South Korea moved down in the list after imports plunged by 48%, occupying the fifth position in the ranking.

Taiwan and China remained among the top ten suppliers despite sharp drops of 52% and 80% in the yearly imports. Meanwhile, imports from Colombia also plunged by 66% from H1 2023.

Sharp declines in H1 PVC imports mirrored poor market dynamics, while import supplies are expected to decrease further in the coming period. The decline in the first half was probably moderated as buyers continued to buy Egyptian and US PVC before the provisional antidumping duties imposed on July 12, 2024.

Indeed, US PVC faces a heating competition in global outlets, which is adversely affecting European PVC exports. Europe is a net exporter, with its H1 2024 exports exceeding imports by over twofold.

Vietnam dethrones China to become largest PET supplier

Among the top 5 suppliers, Vietnam became the top supplier with a share of 27%, followed by Türkiye (25%), Egypt (13%), South Korea and Pakistan (each around 5%). China was dethroned by Vietnam as Chinese imports faced a dramatic 9.5-fold decrease from H1 2023 versus 49% higher imports from Vietnam. Egypt moved up in the list despite a yearly decline of 11% in imports. Pakistan, from where imports doubled, ranked the fifth in the list.

PET imports from South Korea and Taiwan fell respectively by 53% and 44% on the year in H1 2024, as a side note.

Following the imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties from early April, Chinese PET mostly disappeared from the market and Vietnam became the dominating origin for PET. Players also sourced material from Turkish and Egyptian sources given the proximity advantage, considering the long transit times and delays from Asia.

Moreover, virgin PET bottle imports will decline further amid evolving regulations within the bloc, considering the 2025 target of achieving 25% recycled content for beverage bottles.

Reliance on PS imports increases on lower regional output

Iran dethroned Türkiye to become the main PS supplier of Europe, with H1 imports doubling from the same period of 2023. The two countries accounted for about 40% of the union’s PS imports. This was followed by China and South Korea, with shares less than 10%, as H1 imports soared by 78% and 66% on the year, respectively.

Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, and Singapore have all ascended in the rankings, with imports from Singapore experiencing the most notable advancement, marking a sixfold increase.

Meanwhile, Norway dropped to the seventh place in the list, with imports shrinking by 40% from last year. Imports from India and Brazil saw substantial drops of 52% and 75%, respectively.

Europe’s reliance on imports has been rising since it became a net importer in 2022. This increase in imports has been attributed to regional rationalization efforts amid high raw material costs and intense competition. Notably, buyers favor imported materials if they offer a noticeable discount compared to local prices.

Arbitrage window wide open for Asian ABS

South Korea, Taiwan and the USA remained the three largest ABS suppliers, constituting nearly 90% of the cumulative imports. This was followed by Saudi Arabia and China, with both ascending in the ranking. Imports from China, which have been steadily rising since 2019, doubled from H1 2023, marking the highest volume since 2018.

Imports from Thailand, the UK and Malaysia indicated drops of 82%, 27% and 40% on the year, however.

ABS markets are highly responsive to shifts in demand across both the automotive sector and a diverse array of consumer goods industries. Buying interest may remain muted in the coming period given economic headwinds, while whether or not imports will remain above the union’s exports, being the case in the last two years, remains contingent on the gap between European and Asian ABS prices. Some suppliers reportedly evaluate whether to initiate an antidumping probe on certain Asian origins.