Taiwan’s Dec PVC prices to India expected to hold steady as players await ADD clarity

India’s import PVC market is currently at a standstill as players await further clarity on provisional anti-dumping duties (ADD), recently announced after an investigation by a government panel. Market participants are also watching for signs of tighter local supplies, which remain slack at present.

While a section of the market anticipates the current ample availability in India to stand in the way of any runaway price increase in PVC imports, others say the provisional ADD announced about a week ago will have a cost-push effect on import prices. Traders have mostly veered towards expecting a rollover for December by a major Taiwanese producer, although they feel prices could rise in early January.

Supplies ample but may dry up by mid-December

“There is currently ample availability in the Indian market, and buyers can afford to wait unless buying totally stops,” commented a trader based in the country’s financial capital of Mumbai. He noted that there was room currently for prices to fall as availability was not an issue.

Other traders, however, foresee a medium-term uptick in prices as the market absorbs current oversupplies. “It might take a few more weeks for inventories to deplete,” said another Mumbai-based trader. “We’ve seen a surge in imports up to August, but by the second week of December, supply may start tightening. We estimate prices could rise by around $80/ton by early next year,” he added.

According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, PVC imports between May and August increased by 32% year-on-year, reaching about 1.2 million tons. Imports over the first eight months of the year rose by 1% to approximately 2.2 million tons, suggesting annual volumes could match last year’s total of around 3.2 million tons.


“Imports rose in the May-August period as people anticipated prohibitive anti-dumping duties to be imposed by the government and knew this would raise import prices. But towards the actual ADD imposition, import volumes have started falling, with September likely to have seen just around 200,000 tons, and October accounting for even lower volumes,” the trader added.

Import prices stable, activity remains muted

Most Chinese export offers are currently in a $670-680/ton FOB range, translating to notional import prices in the mid-$750s/ton CIF India, which point to low-end import offers maintaining their levels of the past few weeks. The Taiwanese major’s November PVC offers to India at $800/ton CIF have occupied the high end. ChemOrbis Price Wizard shows that import PVC prices to India dropped by nearly 25% from June to mid-September, followed by a 3% increase as ADD imposition approached.



The import market remains stagnant, with most players holding off until they receive further guidance from the government on final ADD implementation. A pipe manufacturer shared, “We usually buy from Japan, but there haven’t been any offers from our partner in recent weeks. The Taiwanese producer’s next move might provide some direction.”

“Buyers also seem to be in a state of hibernation as far as imports are concerned,” said a trader. “Nobody seems to be in a mood to take a position in the market. Before the provisional duties were announced, we’d a major Chinese producer offering at $725/ton FOB China, which would land at around $830/ton CIF, but even those offers have been taken off the shelves,” he added.

At the same time, prices have risen in the local market in anticipation of the prohibitive ADD being imposed once the 30-day waiting period to be over. “There could be some minor adjustments, but overall, we expect the government to impose ADD as per the list provided,” a trader said.

US PVC goes out of fashion; Chinese may be limited

For the record, most players say US PVC may soon be out of vogue, as far as the Indian market is concerned, because of the prohibitive ADD of $104-339/ton. “We don’t see any Chinese origin shipment venturing out to India if the provisional ADD is above $97/ton. In fact, any shipment that draws an ADD of above the $100-mark may be unviable unless the basic price is adjusted lower,” said the trader.

The latest move has also sparked talk about players opting to import finished PVC profiles for construction purposes to circumvent the ADD on PVC resin. “At the same time, imports may not be feasible for PVC pipes, which account for the bulk of PVC use in India. And it is also highly unlikely for HDPE to move into the PVC pipe market because of technical reasons,” the trader commented.