Turkish PVC players monitor supply scene amid global trade barriers

The import PVC market is set to close November on a steady to soft note, influenced by weaker US offers, initial rollovers from nearby Europe, and mixed December policies from a Taiwanese major in Asia. Most cargoes were offered for January shipments this week, in line with the approaching Christmas holidays in US and Europe that will shorten working days next month. The year-end lull, off-season, and economic gloom continued to dampen sentiment in Türkiye.

Meanwhile, players are closely watching how global trade barriers might impact Türkiye’s PVC supply dynamics. Some speculate that recent measures by India and Europe on imports could lead US producers to prioritize exports to Türkiye, while European PVC suppliers may redirect their cargoes to India.

European sellers reveal rollovers, US PVC retains downtrend

The duty-free PVC K67 range was assessed steady at $830-880/ton CIF Türkiye, cash from last week, consisting of some fresh offers from West European sources on the upper end. The weekly average of the market was $855/ton CIF this week, according to ChemOrbis data. The market bottomed out at $800/ton in December 2023. This suggests that European suppliers limited discounts toward the year’s end by managing production levels, citing weak margins in Türkiye.

A player commented, “We expect deals to be finalized at $860/ton CIF, or possibly lower, given sellers’ margin complaints on one hand and subdued local demand across Europe on the other.” Meanwhile, another duty-free origin, South Korean K67, was priced at around $850/ton CIF, with bids at $840/ton being rejected due to higher shipping costs from Far East Asia.

In the dutiable market, PVC K67 was assessed $10/ton below last week at $710-740/ton CIF, cash. “Most prices hovered around $720/ton, though sellers appear open to negotiation," a player commented. "Still, it’s unclear whether these prices were offered for short sales or not," he added.

Will American K67 break below $700/ton CIF?

Some buyers projected that US prices could dip slightly below the $700/ton CIF Türkiye mark next week. These softer expectations were supported by a potential drop in sales of ex-USG volumes to India and Europe due to recent measures. A major trader remarked, ’We expect prices to hit bottom in December.

Meanwhile, ChemOrbis data showed that American PVC prices bottomed out at $750/ton CIF in December 2023, supported by logistics disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, compared to this week’s average of $725/ton. This year’s steeper discounts were driven by mounting pressure on sellers from global trade barriers.

Players looked to other major markets for clues to better gauge future prospects. In nearby Europe, November PVC deals were steady to slightly firmer while sellers were expected to approach buyers with rollover attempts for next month amid their need to protect their margins. As a side note, declining spot naphtha prices weighed on predictions about the imminent ethylene settlement for December at the time of publication. With clarity on the impending anti-dumping duties on import PVC expected to emerge in India by next week, prices in the country trended higher this week. Nonetheless, the rest of Asia saw a slide for December in response to a supply overhang in China, which sent domestic and export Chinese PVC prices to multi-year lows. Accordingly, a major Taiwanese producer’s latest notifications were up by $10/ton in India but dropped by $20/ton CIF China. Although lower import volumes lent support to India’s local market, domestic supply was reported to be ample, mirroring calm activity.

Price discussions may kick off next week, unless postponed until Plast Eurasia Istanbul, scheduled for December 4-7. US PVC producers are projected to remain under pressure from anti-dumping (AD) measures implemented by key export markets in the long run. Yet, shipments may face a slowdown given the nearing Christmas Holiday in the short term. The upcoming strategies of European producers are a key topic of interest for the final month of 2024, especially amid religious holidays, lethargic downstream demand and year-end book closures.

How will global trade barriers impact Türkiye’s PVC supply scene?

While the waning appetite for US PVC globally has caused jitters among players, a European market source noted, “Europe may reduce PVC exports to Türkiye in 2025 to focus more on India.”

A Turkish player added, “European sellers might prioritize exports to India over Türkiye if freight rates become favorable in the medium term. Meanwhile, excess supply from China will continue to pose challenges in global markets heading into the new year.”



As can be seen on the pie chart obtained from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard PRO above, Mexico (260,000 tons), India (211,000 tons), Türkiye (188,000 tons), and the EU (115,000 tons) were among the main buyers of US PVC during January-September, following Canada (473,000 tons, 16%), which retained the lion’s share. Notably, total volumes into India and the EU accounted for 14% (approximately 325,000 tons) of US PVC exports, highlighting a significant quantity that may need to find alternative destinations due to revised customs regulations.



Türkiye remained the EU’s top PVC export destination in the first nine months of the year, as the pie chart obtained from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard PRO above shows, receiving 277,000 tons and accounting for 30% of the region’s total exports. It was followed by the UK (143,000 tons), Egypt (64,000 tons), Algeria (58,000 tons), and India (57,000 tons). Whether European producers will increase sales to India remains to be seen, particularly as import options narrow due to anti-dumping duty implementation and robust demand growth projections in the latter.

Now, factor in exports from China, which is grappling with a supply surplus. In short, as global trade flows in PVC markets are reshaped, market share battles are likely to intensify.