Türkiye PVC outlook for 2025: Will poor margins and unstable demand break the cycle?
by Merve Madakbaşı - mmadakbasi@chemorbis.com

While the PVC market spent much of 2024 grappling with price declines in Türkiye, it is preparing to close the year on relatively solid footing, supported by tightening supply. What lies ahead for the market in 2025 remains a subject of interest. On one hand, India’s BIS process and the anti-dumping duties it plans to impose on most imported origins are poised to reshape global supply flows. On the other, Europe’s import measures are equally set to have a significant impact.
In such a period of flux, what role Türkiye will play remains uncertain. Regardless of these factors, the trajectory of the construction sector—being the primary driver of economic growth and PVC consumption—will undoubtedly remain a central focus in the coming year.
A look back at 2024: Prices buckle under gloomy economy
The PVC market is nearing the end of a year marked by unfavorable margins for sellers and a derivative demand that failed to recover as expected under the pressure of inflation for converters. In 2023, Türkiye achieved a record, importing nearly 1 million tons of PVC, driven by expectations of a demand boom following the devastating February 6 earthquakes that fizzled later. In 2024, downstream consumption once again fell short of the anticipated recovery.
In the second half of 2024, there were some signs of improvement in the construction sector. However, economic pressures throughout the year kept resin consumption limited. Manufacturers opted to operate at relatively low rates and relied on existing inventories. Despite ongoing efforts to combat inflation, the postponement of monetary policy easing meant that even as housing prices fell, sales did not pick up quickly. Consequently, factors such as uncertainties in end markets, liquidity challenges, and the struggles of finished goods exporters to remain competitive in foreign markets due to exchange rate pressures negatively impacted the PVC market.
PVC trapped in a downtrend for 6-8 months in total
Import K67 offers on a CIF Türkiye basis began 2024 on a firm footing, supported by the traditional upturn following year-end stock clearances. They followed higher import prices in certain markets, including Southeast Asia and India, with significant increases in ocean container freight rates amid escalating tensions in the Middle East contributing to the upward trend. Meanwhile, the European spot PVC market and China’s import market did not turn upward before February, due to subdued demand and an absence of supply constraints.
Türkiye’s dutiable and duty-free import markets reversed course by March due to waning demand, before bottoming out in May. The re-emergence of resin demand ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday pushed both markets to around $850/ton CIF, with prices peaking in July in line with shipping costs reaching their ceiling. Apart from a brief firming in September, US PVC prices moved constantly south in the second half of the year. European K67 was supported by reduced export volumes from the region, mostly maintaining September’s modest gains through year-end.
In summary, European K67 prices remained within a narrow range of $800-850/ton CIF, no duty, throughout 2024, after gradually declining from as high as $1060/ton in 2023. US offers, which had plunged from nearly $1000/ton to $720/ton CIF in stages last year, struggled to exceed $720-750/ton during 2024, despite sellers’ frustrated attempts to push prices to the $800/ton CIF in late Q3.
An uneventful hurricane season in the US contributed to the downward pressure, further compounded by stricter trade barriers between multiple countries/regions and a global slowdown.
Türkiye trades below global markets most of year
The factor behind the recent albeit cautiously firm stance of European suppliers was the poor netback in Türkiye. PVC producers in the region chose to reduce their allocations rather than further lowering their export prices, which helped stabilize prices. Additionally, reduced production rates and turnarounds enabled European sellers to manage mediocre downstream demand in their region and the limited resin appetite in economically challenged Türkiye.
After hitting bottom in May, duty-free K67 prices in Türkiye were trading more than $150/ton below Europe’s spot market. The discount widened to as much as $200/ton in September before stabilizing at $100-120/ton in Q4 when prices rolled over in Türkiye and declined in Europe.
For most of the year, Türkiye maintained an unhealthy premium over Asian markets. The gap with China widened to around $100/ton only in early February and mid-June, despite soaring freight rates during H1 2024. Both markets traded at par until a supply overhang in China and tepid demand from India, triggered by anti-dumping measures, allowed Türkiye to recently price above this market.
A similar trend was also observed in comparisons with India and Southeast Asia. The premium of dutiable K67 on a CIF Türkiye basis over India rarely exceeded $30/ton in 2024 and, at times, even traded $70-90/ton below this key market. The premium over Southeast Asia hovered at $20-40/ton for much of the year, apart from a few occasions when it reached $60-70/ton, driven by rising freight rates. By late May and again in November, Türkiye moved below the region, reflecting steep discounts of $70/ton and $20/ton, respectively.
Stats Wizard PRO data: Total PVC imports may fall short of 2023 record
After hitting an all-time high of 936,000 tons in 2023, Türkiye’s PVC imports seem to have lost momentum. Based on data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard PRO, the cumulative imports stood below 700,000 tons in January-October 2024, down from 820,000 tons recorded in the same period of last year. Once figures for November and December are finalized, total imports may lag behind last year’s total amount, reflecting sluggish consumption and economic headwinds.
What will 2025 unfold for PVC?
In the new year, eyes will be on the course of the economy and the problem of access to finance may remain on the agenda for a while longer. Manufacturers are expected to compensate for low domestic end demand by focusing on exports. Yet, it is important whether exchange rates will support them. For January, limited supply and ebbing demand post-Plast Eurasia will keep PVC balanced. Regardless of the weaker price news from Asia ahead of India’s imminent clarity on AD duties and the holiday lull in Europe , most Turkish players voiced their expectations of a steady trend for January. This projection was justified by limited resin stocks on hand and a lack of signals of a real uptick in derivatives at home.
Multiple sources from European producers said, “Unfavorable netbacks may prompt PVC sellers to test slight hikes next month, influenced by the recently improved sentiment for polyolefins. Yet, demand will have the final say. We may see transactions rolling over unless sudden geopolitical or logistical issues emerge.”
Eyes on supply amid potential strike at US ports
Turkish PVC players will focus on the news about a potential US port strike by mid-January as it may disrupt shipments from the country in Q1. With negotiations between employers and dockworker unions at US East Coast ports at a standstill, the threat of a renewed strike on January 15 is becoming increasingly imminent. The potential impact of US President Trump’s declaration of support for the unions on the process remains unclear. If operations are suspended, shipments and freight rates will take a hit, while PVC supply from the US may see disruptions and support resin prices. This is also considering traders’ firmer attitude on American PVC offers despite bearish Asian markets.
Some players said, “Bulky volumes were secured during the Plast Eurasia Fair while buyers will be covered until spring. Thus, any supply constraints may not affect the market right away.” A converter who plans to shut his factory from late December to January 7th given maintenance and subdued domestic demand in the downstream segments said, “We do not expect hikes into the new year as exports are not robust and local demand remains weak. It may not revive quickly even if interest rate cuts start. Yet, low netbacks show no decreases are likely to occur.”
What will Türkiye get when barriers upend global trade flow?
The year was undoubtedly marked by legislative changes in PVC by countries and regions to protect their own markets. While the deepening property crisis in China hit domestic demand, the government introduced various incentive packages to improve the sector. India’s BIS certification requirement and the imposition of AD duties on many import origins diminished the solutions to China’s oversupply problem.
Although Türkiye is not yet able to obtain regular supplies from South Korea or China due to high freight prices, this situation may be reversed in 2025. On the other hand, there is also the possibility that Egyptian cargoes that cannot enter Europe may turn to neighbouring Türkiye. With the EU and India closing their doors to US PVC, the material flow to Türkiye may increase. Converters, who have been importing US PVC with inward processing certificates, may obtain favorable prices.
On the other hand, if demand in Europe remains mediocre in Q1 2025, PVC producers in the region are likely to divert cargos to India. Especially if freight rates allow for this, netbacks remain low and buying interest is not favorable again in Türkiye. In a scenario where the US, Far East Asia and Egyptian cargoes fill the void left by declining volumes from Europe, Türkiye will not be short of resin. However, some manufacturers do not make purchases with inward processing and a possible decrease in non-dutiable PVC volumes may put them in trouble.
Clouds on downstream may not fully scatter until 2026
Unfortunately, the economic bottleneck this past year brought along bankruptcy applications in the industry. In the list of the most risky sectors, the construction sector took first place with 398 companies, followed by textiles in second place and fuel stations in third.
By Q1 2024, house prices declined for the first time since Q4 2019, though Türkiye still led in real housing price growth since 2019, with a 119.4% increase. However, in Q1 2024, prices fell by 8.9% year-on-year, ranking Türkiye among the top 3 countries with the steepest declines. Consequently, house sales have been on an uptrend for months in a yearly comparison, according to TurkStat.
The Turkish Construction Material Manufacturers Association (Türkiye İMSAD) reported that the construction sector grew 9.2% in Q3 2024. Despite tightening monetary policy, growth accelerated, supported by post-earthquake reconstruction and urban transformation projects after local elections. Moreover, construction material industry production grew by 1.7% in the first nine months of 2024 on a yearly basis but began to decline starting in Q2. Domestic demand started to slow in Q2 due to disinflation policies and tight monetary measures, further contracting in Q3.
In early 2025, higher minimum wages will lift the cost burden on manufacturers while the arrival of PVC cargos may also weigh on resin demand, disregarding delays that may emanate from the potential US port strike. In the medium term, demand for certain end products, including profiles, pipes, and flooring, may pick up due to potential reconstruction efforts in Syria, where a years-long civil war has ended. Yet, no immediate impact was foreseen as reconstruction works would require finance and stable political conditions in the neighboring country. Still, a rising need of infrastructural cables and pipes could boost demand in H1 2025. Overall, PVC consumers and sellers have pinned their hopes for a solid recovery in 2026.
In such a period of flux, what role Türkiye will play remains uncertain. Regardless of these factors, the trajectory of the construction sector—being the primary driver of economic growth and PVC consumption—will undoubtedly remain a central focus in the coming year.
A look back at 2024: Prices buckle under gloomy economy
The PVC market is nearing the end of a year marked by unfavorable margins for sellers and a derivative demand that failed to recover as expected under the pressure of inflation for converters. In 2023, Türkiye achieved a record, importing nearly 1 million tons of PVC, driven by expectations of a demand boom following the devastating February 6 earthquakes that fizzled later. In 2024, downstream consumption once again fell short of the anticipated recovery.
In the second half of 2024, there were some signs of improvement in the construction sector. However, economic pressures throughout the year kept resin consumption limited. Manufacturers opted to operate at relatively low rates and relied on existing inventories. Despite ongoing efforts to combat inflation, the postponement of monetary policy easing meant that even as housing prices fell, sales did not pick up quickly. Consequently, factors such as uncertainties in end markets, liquidity challenges, and the struggles of finished goods exporters to remain competitive in foreign markets due to exchange rate pressures negatively impacted the PVC market.
PVC trapped in a downtrend for 6-8 months in total
Import K67 offers on a CIF Türkiye basis began 2024 on a firm footing, supported by the traditional upturn following year-end stock clearances. They followed higher import prices in certain markets, including Southeast Asia and India, with significant increases in ocean container freight rates amid escalating tensions in the Middle East contributing to the upward trend. Meanwhile, the European spot PVC market and China’s import market did not turn upward before February, due to subdued demand and an absence of supply constraints.
Türkiye’s dutiable and duty-free import markets reversed course by March due to waning demand, before bottoming out in May. The re-emergence of resin demand ahead of the Eid al-Adha holiday pushed both markets to around $850/ton CIF, with prices peaking in July in line with shipping costs reaching their ceiling. Apart from a brief firming in September, US PVC prices moved constantly south in the second half of the year. European K67 was supported by reduced export volumes from the region, mostly maintaining September’s modest gains through year-end.
In summary, European K67 prices remained within a narrow range of $800-850/ton CIF, no duty, throughout 2024, after gradually declining from as high as $1060/ton in 2023. US offers, which had plunged from nearly $1000/ton to $720/ton CIF in stages last year, struggled to exceed $720-750/ton during 2024, despite sellers’ frustrated attempts to push prices to the $800/ton CIF in late Q3.
An uneventful hurricane season in the US contributed to the downward pressure, further compounded by stricter trade barriers between multiple countries/regions and a global slowdown.
Türkiye trades below global markets most of year
The factor behind the recent albeit cautiously firm stance of European suppliers was the poor netback in Türkiye. PVC producers in the region chose to reduce their allocations rather than further lowering their export prices, which helped stabilize prices. Additionally, reduced production rates and turnarounds enabled European sellers to manage mediocre downstream demand in their region and the limited resin appetite in economically challenged Türkiye.
After hitting bottom in May, duty-free K67 prices in Türkiye were trading more than $150/ton below Europe’s spot market. The discount widened to as much as $200/ton in September before stabilizing at $100-120/ton in Q4 when prices rolled over in Türkiye and declined in Europe.
For most of the year, Türkiye maintained an unhealthy premium over Asian markets. The gap with China widened to around $100/ton only in early February and mid-June, despite soaring freight rates during H1 2024. Both markets traded at par until a supply overhang in China and tepid demand from India, triggered by anti-dumping measures, allowed Türkiye to recently price above this market.
A similar trend was also observed in comparisons with India and Southeast Asia. The premium of dutiable K67 on a CIF Türkiye basis over India rarely exceeded $30/ton in 2024 and, at times, even traded $70-90/ton below this key market. The premium over Southeast Asia hovered at $20-40/ton for much of the year, apart from a few occasions when it reached $60-70/ton, driven by rising freight rates. By late May and again in November, Türkiye moved below the region, reflecting steep discounts of $70/ton and $20/ton, respectively.
Stats Wizard PRO data: Total PVC imports may fall short of 2023 record
After hitting an all-time high of 936,000 tons in 2023, Türkiye’s PVC imports seem to have lost momentum. Based on data from ChemOrbis Stats Wizard PRO, the cumulative imports stood below 700,000 tons in January-October 2024, down from 820,000 tons recorded in the same period of last year. Once figures for November and December are finalized, total imports may lag behind last year’s total amount, reflecting sluggish consumption and economic headwinds.
What will 2025 unfold for PVC?
In the new year, eyes will be on the course of the economy and the problem of access to finance may remain on the agenda for a while longer. Manufacturers are expected to compensate for low domestic end demand by focusing on exports. Yet, it is important whether exchange rates will support them. For January, limited supply and ebbing demand post-Plast Eurasia will keep PVC balanced. Regardless of the weaker price news from Asia ahead of India’s imminent clarity on AD duties and the holiday lull in Europe , most Turkish players voiced their expectations of a steady trend for January. This projection was justified by limited resin stocks on hand and a lack of signals of a real uptick in derivatives at home.
Multiple sources from European producers said, “Unfavorable netbacks may prompt PVC sellers to test slight hikes next month, influenced by the recently improved sentiment for polyolefins. Yet, demand will have the final say. We may see transactions rolling over unless sudden geopolitical or logistical issues emerge.”
Eyes on supply amid potential strike at US ports
Turkish PVC players will focus on the news about a potential US port strike by mid-January as it may disrupt shipments from the country in Q1. With negotiations between employers and dockworker unions at US East Coast ports at a standstill, the threat of a renewed strike on January 15 is becoming increasingly imminent. The potential impact of US President Trump’s declaration of support for the unions on the process remains unclear. If operations are suspended, shipments and freight rates will take a hit, while PVC supply from the US may see disruptions and support resin prices. This is also considering traders’ firmer attitude on American PVC offers despite bearish Asian markets.
Some players said, “Bulky volumes were secured during the Plast Eurasia Fair while buyers will be covered until spring. Thus, any supply constraints may not affect the market right away.” A converter who plans to shut his factory from late December to January 7th given maintenance and subdued domestic demand in the downstream segments said, “We do not expect hikes into the new year as exports are not robust and local demand remains weak. It may not revive quickly even if interest rate cuts start. Yet, low netbacks show no decreases are likely to occur.”
What will Türkiye get when barriers upend global trade flow?
The year was undoubtedly marked by legislative changes in PVC by countries and regions to protect their own markets. While the deepening property crisis in China hit domestic demand, the government introduced various incentive packages to improve the sector. India’s BIS certification requirement and the imposition of AD duties on many import origins diminished the solutions to China’s oversupply problem.
Although Türkiye is not yet able to obtain regular supplies from South Korea or China due to high freight prices, this situation may be reversed in 2025. On the other hand, there is also the possibility that Egyptian cargoes that cannot enter Europe may turn to neighbouring Türkiye. With the EU and India closing their doors to US PVC, the material flow to Türkiye may increase. Converters, who have been importing US PVC with inward processing certificates, may obtain favorable prices.
On the other hand, if demand in Europe remains mediocre in Q1 2025, PVC producers in the region are likely to divert cargos to India. Especially if freight rates allow for this, netbacks remain low and buying interest is not favorable again in Türkiye. In a scenario where the US, Far East Asia and Egyptian cargoes fill the void left by declining volumes from Europe, Türkiye will not be short of resin. However, some manufacturers do not make purchases with inward processing and a possible decrease in non-dutiable PVC volumes may put them in trouble.
Clouds on downstream may not fully scatter until 2026
Unfortunately, the economic bottleneck this past year brought along bankruptcy applications in the industry. In the list of the most risky sectors, the construction sector took first place with 398 companies, followed by textiles in second place and fuel stations in third.
By Q1 2024, house prices declined for the first time since Q4 2019, though Türkiye still led in real housing price growth since 2019, with a 119.4% increase. However, in Q1 2024, prices fell by 8.9% year-on-year, ranking Türkiye among the top 3 countries with the steepest declines. Consequently, house sales have been on an uptrend for months in a yearly comparison, according to TurkStat.
The Turkish Construction Material Manufacturers Association (Türkiye İMSAD) reported that the construction sector grew 9.2% in Q3 2024. Despite tightening monetary policy, growth accelerated, supported by post-earthquake reconstruction and urban transformation projects after local elections. Moreover, construction material industry production grew by 1.7% in the first nine months of 2024 on a yearly basis but began to decline starting in Q2. Domestic demand started to slow in Q2 due to disinflation policies and tight monetary measures, further contracting in Q3.
In early 2025, higher minimum wages will lift the cost burden on manufacturers while the arrival of PVC cargos may also weigh on resin demand, disregarding delays that may emanate from the potential US port strike. In the medium term, demand for certain end products, including profiles, pipes, and flooring, may pick up due to potential reconstruction efforts in Syria, where a years-long civil war has ended. Yet, no immediate impact was foreseen as reconstruction works would require finance and stable political conditions in the neighboring country. Still, a rising need of infrastructural cables and pipes could boost demand in H1 2025. Overall, PVC consumers and sellers have pinned their hopes for a solid recovery in 2026.
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