Türkiye’s EPS market extends noteworthy losses into November

Türkiye’s EPS market retained its decreasing trend in November, with lower upstream chain and patchy demand dragging prices notably down. Accordingly, domestic white regular and non-flammable offers were revealed with triple-digit decreases from last month. In the meantime, multiple players confirmed that demand for EPS white was a tad better than EPS black/grey owing to some projects.



Domestic EPS prices hit 4-month lows

Domestic EPS prices for November were assessed $180/ton lower compared to the previous month at $1470-1520/ton for white regular and $1500-1550/ton for white non-flammable ex-warehouse equivalent Türkiye, not inc. VAT.

According to the monthly average data from ChemOrbis, prices dipped to their lowest levels since July following the latest round of price cuts.

Players pointed to competitive Iranian cargos as another factor to contribute to the bearish trend in the local market. A seller said, “We have not heard many Russian offers whereas cheap Iranian offers in the low-$1400s/ton on FD Türkiye, not inc. VAT basis added to the pressure.”

Players: Demand for black/grey remains weaker than white grade

EPS black/grey prices for domestic cargos slumped by $220-250/ton from last month to be reported at $1950-1980/ton FD Türkiye, not inc. VAT.

European EPS black prices for November plunged by €200-250/ton ($217-272/ton with recent parity) to €1900-1950/ton ($2066-2120/ton) FD Türkiye, not inc. VAT. This reflected part of the styrene contract’s drop and stagnant activity in the region. A trader admitted that buying interest did not pick up for another month.

Multiple players opined, “Demand for white grade has been a tad better than black/grey owing to the ongoing projects by TOKI (the Housing Development Administration of the Republic of Türkiye). Yet, EPS black/grey has been under a heavy strain.”

Eyes turn to upstream chain for December

Meanwhile, some players started to discuss the outlook for next month. Spot styrene prices in Europe stood at around $950/ton FOB NWE on a monthly average, as per ChemOrbis data available at the time of press. This was compared to the August peak of $1515/ton. EPS players plan to keep a close eye on the upstream chain in the coming days to have a better clue about sellers’ potential December pricing.

Highly volatile crude oil markets coupled with the year-end lull may continue to exert pressure on EPS prices into the next month, according to some players. This projection is underpinned by a lack of supply issues now that a Turkish EPS producer, namely CFN has resumed operations following a force majeure in October. “The lingering cash constraints, adequate supply, weak EPS demand from export markets and the year-end book closures weigh on the outlook,” a converter commented.

On the other side of the coin, some EPS consumers may be more willing to replace some stocks ahead of the new year based on the recent stabilization in spot styrene prices in Europe. “Styrene prices have been moving in a narrow range which may help downstream EPS stabilize heading to the first quarter of 2024. If EPS prices bottom out, buyers may return to meet their requirements,” said a player.