Türkiye’s PP and PE markets gear up for January hikes as supply dwindles

Polyolefin prices hit bottom in the first week of December as buoyant demand and low seller margins helped markets snap a long losing streak. Year-to-date low prices for most PP and PE grades attracted interest from several buyers and traders who had postponed their purchases until the Plast Eurasia. Easing sales pressure before the new year, suppliers have already taken a firmer approach for PP, while PE is projected to follow suit soon. Yet, it remains to be seen whether the potential hikes will be absorbed by the markets next month.

PP pioneers firmer prices albeit cautiously

Sentiment for PP recovered earlier than PE as suppliers began adopting a firmer stance, particularly on the lower end of the overall market ranges, toward mid-December. Meanwhile, price discussions in the import market subsided following inventory replenishment in previous weeks. Contributing to the slowdown were year-end book closures and stocktaking activities. Still, sentiment among sellers remained cautiously firm heading into the new year.

Saudi Arabian PP raffia was assessed at $1030-1050/ton CIF Türkiye, subject to 6.5% customs duty, cash basis, over the past week. Fibre and injection grades were assessed at $1060-1080/ton and $1030-1050/ton, respectively, under the same terms. These levels reflected a modest firming for January shipment cargoes compared to early December levels. Selling ideas in some cases stood above the prevailing price ranges, but a lack of confirmed transactions kept traders on edge.

Players are sitting tight in anticipation of further price hikes, albeit in modest amounts. Dwindling stock levels, coupled with limited January allocations and rising freight rates, are likely to pave the way for renewed increases, potentially eliminating the current low ends. On the flip side, the demand outlook for early Q1 appears dim due to slow derivative markets, financial challenges, and earlier stockpiling. Additionally, the arrival of materials purchased in bulk during the destocking period may put a cap on the anticipated hikes—not to mention the low season for certain PP applications.

Diminished stocks push US PE upwards before Christmas

As for polyethylene, firmer signals for American cargoes, combined with depleted Middle Eastern supply at bonded warehouses, boosted sentiment for next month. Although netbacks to Asian PE markets improved slightly due to recent stabilization in Türkiye, they remained at multi-month lows. Traders have already begun voicing higher sell ideas for early 2025.

US PE offers reversed their course, particularly on the lower end, after sellers achieved bulky sales throughout Q4 2024. Suppliers focused on their shipments, leading to packaging congestion before the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the potential port strike set to start on January 15 has caused some jitters among players, as it could lift freight rates and disrupt material flows into Q1.

Adding to the firmer PE scene were diminished availability for Russian, Iranian, and Uzbek HDPE grades, as well as fading pressure on Petkim’s side, with the company receiving vivid LDPE demand during the first half of December. LLDPE without slip was also considered limited. Players expect fresh PE announcements to show $10-30/ton increases depending on the product, as supply appears to have tightened.

Questions swirl about demand in Q1

Indeed, polyolefin sellers acknowledge that robust demand from converters in late November and early December was not driven by a solid uptick in derivatives but rather by buyers hedging against a traditional upturn in January amid an upcoming rise in utility costs for companies. “We realized a revival in end-product orders ahead of higher minimum wages. Yet, the broader downstream market will need more time to pick up. We plan to observe the USD/Lira parity following the recent rise,” some converters mentioned.

High container prices and a lack of stock pressure on global sellers keep the outlook on the firm side. However, the sustainability of demand remains a question mark for the coming term, as lingering financial challenges and the low season for certain applications cloud the scene for early Q1. As a side note, the expected arrival of cargoes secured in late Q4 may keep the size of PP and PE hikes in check, provided derivative segments stay muted and no geopolitical or logistical crisis emerges.

Poor netbacks based on Asian PE markets will encourage sellers to test higher price levels, while how the US port issue evolves will be pivotal, as any strike could disrupt deliveries. Meanwhile, the relatively healthy premium of Türkiye’s import PP market over China may cap hikes for this product—especially considering that demand has shifted to textiles from bcf fibre due to their more competitive prices.

In the medium term, potential trade barriers from the US Trump administration against China, which still copes with real estate turmoil and boosts measures to bolster economic recovery, loom over the trajectory across the board. On the other side of the coin, this may help demand turn to Turkish goods in the long run, as some players put it.

Demand for certain end products, such as infrastructural cables and pipes, may pick up due to potential reconstruction efforts in Syria, where a years-long civil war has ended. Yet, no immediate impact is foreseen as reconstruction works would require finance and stable political conditions in the neighboring country.