Vietnam’s LDPE film trades at par with China; LLDPE loses premium

Import PE prices in China and Vietnam, particularly those for LDPE and LLDPE film, have trended in opposite directions over the past months, significantly narrowing the deltas between the two markets. While China’s prices largely followed an uptrend in tandem with the onset of the traditional peak season, Vietnam’s PE prices had been declining since early July before recording some increases during the week ending on October 11. This signaled an erosion of re-export opportunities from China to nearby Vietnam.

Demand serves as key price determinant

Derivative demand has gradually increased across China’s downstream sectors amid the “Golden September – Silver October” high season, fueling PE sellers’ firm stance. The seasonal demand recovery has been further supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which implemented macroeconomic measures that boosted sentiment across the supply chain. These factors have helped create a better trading environment in China compared to Vietnam, where sluggish demand has persisted.

In Vietnam, despite a recent rebound of $20/ton in LDPE film and $30/ton in HDPE film—likely due to higher feedstock costs and reduced supply—buyers remained cautious. A packaging manufacturer in Hanoi noted, “Order entries remain low with no signs of year-end demand. We are maintaining low inventories and only buying for immediate needs, even though prices might rise further."

LD prices trade at par despite Vietnam’s rebound

After the National Day holiday, import LDPE film prices in China surged ahead of those in Vietnam, with increases of $10-30/ton. In contrast, Vietnam saw rollovers on the high end and a $20/ton rise on the low end. By mid-October, the price gap between LDPE imports in China and Vietnam had closed, according to ChemOrbis Price Index data. Back in mid-June, Vietnam’s LDPE film market had gained a significant premium over China, reaching a 23-month high of $140/ton.



China’s LL gains premium over Vietnam

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s LLDPE film imports traded at a slight discount of $5/ton compared to China, marking the first time since mid-October 2020 that Vietnam lost its premium over China, as per ChemOrbis Price Index data.



As a side note, the gap between HDPE film import prices in China and Vietnam has also narrowed considerably, though Vietnam still maintains a premium. The price difference shrank to $35/ton, down 46% from early August and nearly 59% from its year-to-date high in mid-February.