Will demand catch up with Feb hikes in Türkiye’s PP and PE markets?

Import polyolefin prices appear to have extended their gains into February, driven by diminished supply, with offers for new shipments indicating further increases from January levels. Although limited import volumes from regular suppliers support the strong sentiment, questions remain about whether the buying appetite will keep pace with the bullish momentum.

According to some players, derivative markets have ebbed compared to December-January while the approaching month of Ramadan may further weigh on resin purchases—not to mention the effects of the possible arrival of materials secured in late Q4 last year.

Adding to the skepticism about the feasibility of price hikes is the ongoing CNY holiday, which stalled Asian markets this week, along with recent losses in global oil futures. Additionally, Europe has been grappling with worsening signals from Germany’s economy for months. On Wednesday, the German government reduced its GDP (gross domestic product) forecast to just 0.3% growth in 2025 from the previous 1.1% revealed in October, adding to worries among Turkish exporters about Europe’s top economy.

Moreover, PPH, LLDPE C4 film, and HDPE film prices on a CIF Türkiye basis carry a healthy premium over import prices reported before the Lunar New Year break in Asia. This has led buyers to believe that prices may not have room for larger increases for certain grades. Overall, the origin-based ChemOrbis Price Index was assessed stable on the week due to pending February announcements from most sellers.



Saudi Arabian PPH prices flirt with fresh highs    

With most producers continuing to report a lack of adequate supply for February due to shutdowns in the Middle East, Saudi Arabian PP raffia prices reached $1080/ton CIF on the high end this week. Similarly, PP fibre offers neared the $1150/ton CIF threshold on the upper end amid tight availability. On the other hand, no deals were confirmed at recent highs at the time of writing.

A sack maker commented, “Sellers have lifted their Saudi and Russian offers, blaming limited supply and soaring production costs. We also heard about potential hike attempts for Egyptian origin. Buyers may return to purchase resin if prices rise by $10-20/ton. Any hike attempts beyond that may keep them on the sidelines.”

Players continue to monitor the logistics industry in the shade of tight availability. In mid-January, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire, raising hopes for Suez Canal traffic resumption, potentially reducing the need for longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. However, an immediate return to the Red Sea is uncertain due to the risk of resumed rebel attacks. The Danish shipping giant Maersk reaffirmed its decision to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden due to ongoing regional tension. Additionally, French CMA CGM will continue prioritizing alternative routes, including the Cape of Good Hope, due to ongoing security risks. This is to say, polyolefin markets will continue to witness long lead times for a while more.

Import LDPE takes the lead in PE hikes    

Most Middle Eastern producers have yet to reveal their official February prices, though some have signaled marginal increases for LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film. This aligned with some HDPE shutdowns in the region for Q1. LLDPE C4 film without additives has also faced reduced supply from Middle Eastern suppliers since 2025 kicked off following heavy depleting activities in Q4 last year.

An agent of a regional supplier voiced their sell ideas with $10-20/ton hikes for these products while planning a larger increase of $40-50/ton for LDPE. In addition, players reported hearing about a Saudi Arabian major’s plan to issue notable hikes due to its tight quotas next week. A source from a Middle Eastern producer confirmed having no material for certain LLDPE grades and HDPE b/m regarding February.

Given the growing premiums over import prices in Asia for LLDPE and HDPE, modest hikes would not surprise buyers. Nonetheless, import LDPE continued to hint at negative netbacks compared to China and Southeast Asia before the Lunar New Year holidays. This will likely result in more visible price hikes for LDPE than for other PE products in the coming term.

Cost support persists despite softening oil prices
   
Brent oil futures have cooled after surpassing the $82/bbl mark in early January and caused spot naphtha prices to erase part of their previous gains as the month wore on. Still, projections call for increases from €30/ton to €70/ton in olefin contracts in Europe based on surging spot ethylene and propylene prices month over month driven by cracker issues across the region.

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“The projected rise in February propylene and ethylene settlements supports sellers’ hike targets,” a trader said. Moreover, sellers still need to improve their PP and PE margins to recoup late Q4 losses, he added.

Players question whether demand will resume    

A converter said, “End product orders picked up in late December and stayed vivid in early January, with downstream buyers boosting their inquiries amid rising minimum wages. Yet, demand has wound down recently. This may limit CIF purchases to basic needs given long lead times unless preparations for the upcoming Eid al-Fitr holiday buoy PE activity again.”

A PP seller noted, “We have realized fewer price inquiries from our customers this week while a couple of them rejected to pay additional price hikes. Once more suppliers announce their offers for the new month, we expect the recent highs to see acceptance amid tightness and higher costs.” At the same time, some buyers pointed to healthy netbacks to Asia as a factor that will cap increases, let alone lower ocean container prices from the region.