ADD final findings spark price surge in India’s PVC market amid weak demand

India’s PVC market saw its first major shake-up in weeks as the government confirmed anti-dumping duties (ADD) on suspension-grade PVC (S-PVC) imports, a move that immediately sent import and domestic prices higher, even as seasonal monsoon rains continued to suppress demand from key downstream sectors such as construction and agriculture.

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) issued its Final Findings on August 14, recommending definitive ADD on imports from China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the United States. The Ministry of Finance is expected to implement the duties within 20–30 days, locking them in place for five years.

Prices jump after ADD announcement

Market participants reported a sharp upward shift in offers. Chinese-origin PVC K67 cargoes below the $700/ton CIF threshold disappeared from the market almost overnight, with values rising by $20-30/ton week-on-week, reflecting the weight of a steep $140/ton duty recommendation. A Taiwanese cargo was sold at $760/ton CIF, while Japanese K67 offers surged to $800/ton CIF India.

The locally-held market quickly followed the trend, with market assessments showing weekly gains of INR1500-3000/ton ($17-34/ton).

Market split: demand sluggish, sentiment bullish

Despite the price surge, most converters remain cautious buyers. Seasonal rains continue to dampen downstream demand, with many converters unwilling to commit to higher-priced imports. A Mumbai-based trader commented, “Demand in India remains slow due to the monsoon, and the ADD development will further weigh on buying interest. Market players are still processing the news. A demand recovery is only expected in late September or early October; until then, the market will not be buoyant.”

According to traders, around 95% of Indian converters sell their finished PVC products domestically, making them ineligible to avoid ADD. Only a small group, roughly 5%, who export finished goods are exempt from duties and may still consider Chinese resin. However, Chinese suppliers have tightened payment terms, with many now offering only FOB shipments. Even when CIF terms are extended, balances are often required within 5–7 days of shipment, otherwise advance deposits risk forfeiture.

Price hikes expected from Taiwanese major and local producers

Until last week, expectations were leaning toward rollovers or minor decreases in the Taiwanese major’s September pricing. But sentiment has now flipped. Most players anticipate a modest hike, with market talk centering around $750-760/ton CIF India, compared with $730/ton in August.

A Mumbai trader explained, “The producer already admitted last month that it was selling below cost. A modest increase is inevitable.”

Other suppliers are also expected to raise offers. A South Korean producer has yet to announce, but increases are widely anticipated. On the domestic side, a major Indian producer is reportedly preparing a INR3000/ton hike, with others set to follow.

Reshaping India’s PVC trade

China, which accounted for nearly 40% of India’s PVC imports in 2024, will be the hardest hit by the ADD. Non-cooperative Chinese suppliers could face penalties as high as $232/ton, effectively pricing them out of the Indian market. Traders warned that the supply of cheaper Chinese resin in the open market will vanish, shifting trade flows toward Taiwan, Japan, and domestic producers.

A Delhi-based trader summed up the situation: “This is a long-awaited relief for Indian producers. For converters, though, it means higher costs, at least until demand recovers after the monsoon.”