Asia opens the taps: Chinese PP and PE flows intensify into Türkiye’s premium import market

Türkiye’s import polyolefin markets have entered a new phase of structural rebalancing since last week as Chinese-origin offers emerge more aggressively in response to persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East. The war in the region, which erupted in late February, has transformed Türkiye into a clear premium destination for polymer imports, as tightened availability from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Korea, and Iran has significantly reduced regular cargo flows.

This shift has widened the arbitrage window from Asia, encouraging Chinese suppliers and traders to step in with more competitive pricing, particularly at the low end of the import range over the past two weeks. At the time of writing, Türkiye-China spread for PP raffia stood as high as $460/ton on a weekly average, as per ChemOrbis data, while PE film carried a premium of $500-550/ton over Middle Eastern offers in China.

In this environment, Chinese PP and PE offers have increasingly set the floor of Türkiye’s import market, drawing attention from converters seeking alternatives amid volatile geopolitical conditions and several temporary plant shutdowns in the Middle East. While overall sentiment remains cautious and panic buying subsided in April, selective deals concluded this week indicate that Chinese origins are gradually gaining traction, especially where pricing advantages offset longer logistics and uncertainty risks. The market structure has become more fragmented, with Asia-based flows partially filling gaps left by disrupted Middle Eastern supply chains.

PP: Chinese offers anchor the low end as arbitrage window widens

In the PP segment, Chinese-origin cargoes have emerged as the most visible alternative in Türkiye’s import basket, particularly for homo PP raffia. These offers have formed the low end of the market over the past two weeks, effectively reshaping the pricing structure in a market traditionally dominated by Middle Eastern, South Korean, and Russian origins. Chinese PP raffia has been sold between $1520-1550/ton CIF, subject to 6.5% customs duty, cash, depending on the brand and shipment term. These levels stood $150-200/ton below scarce Saudi Arabian offers and $300/ton below current Russian raffia prices.

In the meantime, some re-export Saudi Arabian raffia from China also offered a competitive option at $1550/ton CIF, yet its delivery in September deterred buyers. A buyer said, “We became familiar with Chinese-origin PP during the pandemic period. Considering that the supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the near term, we wanted to include some Chinese raffia in our portfolio. Otherwise, traders’ reluctance to replenish stocks at current high prices could carry supply shortages into the coming months.”

This shift has been reinforced by sporadic deal activity at multi-year import PP prices from mainstream origins, as some converters chose to secure Chinese PP volumes despite longer lead times. The widening premium of Türkiye over Asian PP markets has made such arbitrage flows economically viable, encouraging traders to redirect cargoes westward. Players confirmed hearing re-export Middle Eastern and Chinese PP copolymer prices this week.

However, liquidity remains uneven, with transactions largely driven by opportunistic buying rather than sustained demand recovery, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in downstream consumption. Most players pointed to the approaching holidays in May, which will prompt manufacturers to suspend factory operations.

PE: Chinese and re-export volumes of various origins reshape supply options

A similar pattern has emerged in the PE market, where Chinese PE offers have gained more visibility in Türkiye’s import discussions amid a lack of regular Middle Eastern and South Korean flow. These cargoes, priced well below mainstream origins, including American cargos, have helped establish a softer floor in an otherwise tightly supplied market. The sharp reduction in Middle Eastern availability—particularly following disruptions in Jubail, Ruwais, and suspended Iranian exports—has amplified the importance of Asian-origin alternatives.

This week, Chinese LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film deals centered at $1550-1600/ton CIF, subject to 6.5% customs duty, amid deals confirmed by players. HDPE b/m (small container) was traded at $1510/ton with the same terms. These levels were deemed highly attractive compared to elevated US offers at around $1800-1900/ton CIF Türkiye. Chinese HDPE pipe 100 (natural) at $1700/ton CIF offered a competitive edge compared to other dutiable offers above the $1800/ton CIF threshold.

Regarding LDPE film, where the market has been suffering from disrupted offers from nearby Europe, Chinese offers were reported at $1900-1950/ton CIF, versus Middle Eastern and US offers at/above $2000/ton CIF, which failed to turn into deals.

At the same time, re-export PE volumes routed through China have also entered the Turkish market conversation. Various brands have been reported, including Saudi Arabian, Canadian, US, Singaporean, and Malaysian origins. However, despite their presence, these re-export offers have not generated strong interest from converters due to extended lead times and extra paperwork related to the regulatory process, limiting their competitiveness compared to more straightforward Chinese-origin cargoes, according to some players.