Asian PVC markets bearish amid monsoon lull, tariff ambiguity and oversupply

Asian PVC markets continued to face headwinds as bearish sentiment prevailed across major regions amid seasonal slowdowns, geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent oversupply in early August. Obviously, the previous optimism driven by expectations of a new work plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which aims to reduce capacity in China’s key sectors such as petrochemicals, had little impact on the short-term sentiment, with bearish factors coming to the forefront once again.

ChemOrbis data reveals a clear two-phase trend in PVC pricing over the past two years across the region. After a prolonged decline from 2021 highs, prices began a moderate recovery in mid-2023. This upward momentum lasted into early 2024, with import PVC prices in China climbing from a midpoint of assessments of around $722/ton CIF in June 2023 to over $900/ton by January 2024. India and Southeast Asia also followed similar trajectories.

However, the recovery was short-lived. From early 2024 onward, prices steadily declined, reaching historic lows by August 2025. Current prices stand at midpoints of $695/ton CIF China, $705/ton CIF India, and $657/ton CIF Southeast Asia — levels rarely seen in the past five years.

This sustained downturn underscores the challenges facing the PVC market, with regional dynamics and global macroeconomic factors continuing to exert downward pressure on prices.

Monsoon dampens India demand; benchmarks seen flat to lower

In India, market activity remains subdued due to the ongoing monsoon season, which traditionally slows construction and infrastructure-related demand. Apathy among buyers has led to cautious expectations ahead of a key September pricing announcement by a major Taiwanese producer.

A trader based in Mumbai said, “Demand for PVC in India remains slow. The Taiwanese major has failed to sell out its full allocations for the second month in a row.”

He added, “For September, we expect the Taiwanese producer to roll over its prices. Yet, some other players expect the major to reduce prices by up to $20/ton to around $710/ton CIF India.” The Taiwanese major’s current offer stands at $730/ton.

South Korean offers have softened in the past couple of weeks from $730–740/ton to around $720/ton CIF India. “In any case, we don’t see the Taiwanese company reducing the price below its lowest ever offer at $700/ton CIF India,” the trader said.

Despite the current lull, the Mumbai trader expects a mild recovery post-monsoon, likely from September–October. “Construction will resume, and rural purchasing power will improve with good crop yields,” he said. Long-term demand drivers like infrastructure development and the Jal Jeevan Mission continue to support the market’s fundamentals, he added. The program aims to assist states in planning of participatory rural water supply strategy on a long-term basis for every rural household and public institution.

A PVC pipe producer based in Kochi, southern India, commented: “There’s no doubt that the market is bearish, but the Taiwanese major may still keep its benchmark level unchanged as it wouldn’t want prices to go down any further ahead of the post-monsoon season that can usher in higher prices.” A buyer of Japanese PVC, he also pointed to the duty-free origins falling in the past two weeks from $795/ton CIF to the current $770-775/ton CIF, equivalent to $715-720/ton CIF for dutiable origins from elsewhere.

Tariff uncertainty clouds SEA outlook

In Southeast Asia, traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty surrounding the US tariff regime. A Vietnamese trader noted that while domestic prices in China have softened, he continues to keep his offers stable.

“Everybody is waiting for clarity on the US tariff regime,” he said. “Demand for PVC flooring might improve after a clearer announcement, even though Vietnam faces higher US tariffs compared to other Southeast Asian countries.”

Despite the tariff disadvantage, Vietnam remains attractive to US buyers due to its competitive labor and raw material costs, favorable exchange rates, and political stability. “Cheaper labor and raw material costs, downstream prices, exchange rate, and ready factories or stable politics are factors that could keep the orders from the US to Vietnam intact,” the trader added.

A Shanghai-based trader observed, “Prices are mostly stable to lower across the Southeast Asian region, with buyers hesitant to commit to fresh PVC purchases amid macroeconomic uncertainties.”

Oversupply, weak property sector weigh on China market

In China, PVC prices have been under pressure due to a combination of weak demand and long supply, despite a short firming observed last week, influenced by expectations of a new work plan to reduce capacity. A polymer trader reported that recent offers have declined slightly, tracking the local futures market.

“Supply is still long as units have restarted after maintenance and are operating at high rates,” he said. “Demand is weak due to the sluggish property sector, and downstream buyers are only purchasing for basic needs. Done deals are low, and the market is expected to remain weak until the end of the year as there are no positive factors to improve demand for the time being.”

A PVC producer added that while coal-based and ethylene-based PVC prices have risen slightly due to raw material cost increases, fundamentals remained bearish. “The cost support is strong, but policy impact has weakened,” he said. “The export market continues to be in a wait-and-see mode, and PVC prices are expected to fall.”