Asian PVC outlook further dims as China prices hit fresh lows; Taiwanese major delays May offers

A major Taiwanese PVC producer has postponed its May pricing announcement for Asian markets, amid growing caution following the recent US tariff shock, coupled with the Chinaplas fair taking place in China this week.

Just before the Trump administration introduced sweeping tariffs on all US imports, Asian PVC markets had been on the verge of a recovery. Expectations for May had included potential rollovers or even modest hikes, especially after the major producer implemented steep reductions for April. However, sentiment quickly soured after the tariff announcement, sending prices back on a downward trajectory. Adding further pressure, recent declines in crude oil and ethylene prices have also weighed on market sentiment. FOB/ex-warehouse China offers have posted fresh declines this week.

Players now expect renewed price cuts from Taiwanese major

The tariff turmoil has wiped out the earlier optimism in Asia’s PVC markets. While the Taiwanese producer has delayed its announcement until next week, market participants are now anticipating rollovers or further reductions of up to $40/ton.

In April, the producer had already trimmed its K67 offers to India by $40/ton to $700/ton CIF, cash. Offers to China were cut by $25/ton to the same level, while FOB Taiwan prices fell by $20/ton to $660/ton.

A source from the major producer said, “The market remains very quiet. FOB China offers are still soft, though CIF prices to China have stayed stable. Despite the 90-day window before tariffs are enforced in most regions, players are not rushing to secure cargoes and are maintaining a cautious pace.”

China market hovers at historic lows, bottom still unclear

Following a brief recovery, China’s PVC market has resumed its downward trend. According to ChemOrbis Price Index, local ethylene-based PVC prices hit a new all-time low last week, with the midpoint of the overall price range reaching CNY5000/ton ($605/ton without VAT) on an ex-warehouse, cash basis.

While export offers remained largely stable last week, this week brought fresh decreases of $15-30/ton, marking fresh record lows. A local producer source noted, “Prices have slipped again due to falling futures and crude oil. Supply remains long, and demand is weak, especially with continued weakness in the property sector. There are no supportive policies in place, so we expect the market to stay soft for now.”

A Vietnamese converter also remarked, “Local prices are weak. Some traders are offering Chinese material below VND16,000,000/ton, far cheaper than other origins. Demand remains subdued, and there’s still no sign of a seasonal uptick. We’re only buying to meet immediate needs.”

India market steady but demand remains weak

In contrast to the price declines seen in China, PVC prices in India have remained largely flat this week. Market players noted that both low and high ends of the price range are stable, with no immediate reflection of falling Chinese export prices on Indian imports yet.

A market participant said, “We feel May prices from the Taiwanese major could be rolled over from April. Overall sentiment is that prices may be stable to slightly lower.” However, demand remains sluggish in India, and players remain cautious ahead of the final anti-dumping duty decision. “The final announcement is expected after end-April, but one source said the government may still take up to three more months to officially implement it,” added the player.