Bearish PP, PE trend persists in Türkiye: Historical ChemOrbis data offer insights for future

Mainstream suppliers introduced fresh price cuts in Türkiye as the final quarter of 2025 began, with persistent financial strains weighing on both resin and downstream markets. A combination of ample supply and a lack of momentum across global markets further dampened sentiment, prompting Turkish buyers to issue lower counterbids this month. Several players stepped away from the market to attend K 2025 in Germany (October 8–15), adding to the slowness.

PP raffia hits $850 CIF, copolymer dealt in the low $900s

Buy ideas at $850/ton CIF for Saudi Arabian PP raffia turned into real offers before mid-October, while demand remained sluggish. For fibre, offers broke below the $900/ton CIF threshold on the low end, with a seller concluding deals at $880/ton, subject to 6.5% customs duty, with a few converters. Although South Korean volumes withdrew from the market in early Q4 amid reduced run rates and regional holidays, PP continued to face pressure from abundant Saudi Arabian and Russian stocks at producers, as well as waning demand in certain downstream segments.

Similarly, PPBC inj. slipped below the $950/ton CIF threshold on the low end this month, with deals as low as $920/ton confirmed by some Saudi Arabian suppliers seeking to stimulate sales.

LLDPE faces heavier pressure from aggressive US deals   

October PE prices from the Middle East came under heavy pressure from American cargos, particularly LLDPE C4 film, despite the lack of announcements from some regional producers. LDPE film fell below $1,050/ton CIF Türkiye on the low end, while LLDPE C4 film and HDPE film approached $900/ton.

With the latest US lows at $830/ton for LLDPE C4 film and $870/ton for HDPE film CIF subject to 6.5% duty (for Q1 2026 arrival), Middle Eastern offers above $900/ton appear unlikely to compete effectively.

ChemOrbis historical view: Tracking PP and PE prices alongside oil

Several players stepped away from the market to attend K2025 in Germany (October 8–15), leaving price discussions thin. Throughout the fair, players will try to gather clues on when the global PP and PE markets might recover. Using the ChemOrbis Price Wizard tool, we can extract some historical data to see whether a bottom is in sight. At this point, it is useful to look at the levels where prices bottomed out five years ago and factor in the crude oil prices at that time. However, unlike the post-pandemic surge in demand, it is important to note that end-user consumption remains lackluster in many markets this year, and macroeconomic challenges persist.

Import PPH and PPBC inj. offers have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly 5.5 years on a weekly average, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard. Historical data show that Saudi Arabian raffia had bottomed out at around $755/ton CIF Türkiye in mid-April 2020, when Brent crude futures hovered near $20/bbl, just beginning to recover from the pandemic-driven collapse. Currently, ICE Brent Europe trades around $66/bbl.

As for fibre, the market had previously rebounded from $815/ton CIF in April 2020, when oil prices were much lower than today, and demand was about to recover sharply in the post-pandemic period. Looking at PPH injection, prices had also bottomed out around $815/ton during the same bear run five years ago, when oil traded at historic lows.

To track Türkiye PP and PE price trends, please visit ChemOrbis Price Wizard.

In October 2025, PPBC inj. prices have dived to an all-time low, slipping slightly below the April 2020 bottom of $935/ton on a weekly average — even though Brent currently trades at more than twice the benchmark level of five years ago.

For PE, which saw prices decline later than PP due to relatively limited pressure from Chinese capacity additions, weekly Middle Eastern averages fell to a two-year low, according to ChemOrbis Price Wizard. During the pandemic collapse, HDPE film and LLDPE C4 film had bottomed near $740/ton, while LDPE rebounded from around $800/ton CIF Türkiye—despite much lower Brent futures than today.

Türkiye may be approaching a floor as 2025 heads into its final months. Import PP offers have slipped to levels slightly below their April 2020 pandemic lows, despite Brent crude trading more than twice as high, signaling that sellers may have largely exhausted their room to cut prices. Additional declines in November cannot be ruled out unless other markets like Europe, India, and China revive in terms of activity. For PE, weekly Middle Eastern averages have fallen to multi-year lows, yet remain above pandemic-era bottoms. LLDPE and HDPE may see further downside in November amid the year-end lull, while December could bring stabilization depending on US PE policy. Still, a rebound is unlikely before Q1 2026 due to persistent oversupply and weak end-user demand.

For Türkiye PP and PE price forecasts, please visit ChemOrbis Polymers Forecast Reports.