Brazil’s ADD fails to curb US PE inflows so far, sharper impact seen in early 2026

Brazil’s preliminary anti-dumping duty (ADD) on US-origin PE, in effect since August 29, 2025, has so far failed to meaningfully curb US PE inflows. ChemOrbis Stats Wizard imports for January–November 2025 show that shipments from the United States remained broadly resilient, while market feedback suggests that the stronger impact will be felt from November onward, when buyers started adjusting expectations for much higher definitive duties anticipated in early 2026.

Despite hosting domestic capacities of more than 2.5 million tons of PE, Brazil was the fifth largest import buyer in 2024 with nearly 2 million tons, according to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, following China, India, Türkiye, and Mexico. The US was, needless to say, by far the largest supplier. In return, Brazil was the third largest buyer of US PE, forming around 12% of overall US exports last year.
This close and deep tradeflow now shows early signs of strain following the preliminary ADD launched in August 2025, although the initial impact on volumes has remained limited. Market participants expect the relationship to face a more pronounced test from February 2026 onward, when the definitive duties are announced and the cost structure for US-origin PE could shift more substantially.

US shipments remain dominant despite ADD; shares barely shift

Brazil imported 1.208 million tons of US PE in Jan–Nov 2025, only slightly below 1.294 million tons in 2024. Monthly data shows no steep decline immediately after the August ADD implementation. The imported volumes are consistent with the year’s earlier trend, confirming that the preliminary duty of $199.04/ton did not materially disrupt US flows during the first months of enforcement.

The US still held 68% of Brazil’s total PE imports in Jan–Nov 2025, compared with 71% in 2024 — a modest decline despite the ADD and the 20% import tariff the US continues to face.

Higher definitive duties expected in 2026

Although imports continued to arrive in healthy volumes through October, market sentiment began shifting in November, according to market sources, as the implications of a potential higher definitive ADD are now widely assessed once the preliminary period ends on February 2, 2026.

Traders seem to be refraining from securing US cargoes considering the arrival time in February, possibly when ADD will be increased further. Some even speculate that this expected increase in duties will be a significant one as some US PE exporters look for alternative destinations, losing all hopes on the Brazilian market.

Some contract customers with formula-linked deals for US PE have reportedly canceled their annual contracts, citing unsustainable costs amid the dumping investigation and uncertainty over 2026 tariffs.

Alternative origins emerge, but volumes remain small

As Brazilian buyers search for alternatives to mitigate risk, imports from Argentina, Egypt, Asia and the Middle East did increase, yet their overall shares remain quite minimal compared with the United States.

Argentina posts the largest regional increase but remains a minor supplier

Argentina’s PE shipments to Brazil marked a 26% year-on-year increase in Jan–Nov 2025. Despite this notable growth, Argentina’s share remains small compared with the United States, accounting for less than 15% of total imports. The rise reflects stronger regional trade flows, but it does not materially alter Brazil’s heavy dependence on US-origin PE.

Egypt’s volumes climb sharply, yet its market weight remains limited

Egypt also recorded a substantial increase, with PE imports jumping 255% year-on-year in Jan–Nov 2025. The significant growth was supported by Egypt’s exemption from Brazil’s 20% import duty as a Mercosur partner, which makes its exports more competitively priced. Even so, Egypt’s share in Brazil’s total PE imports remains marginal at around 4%, and the higher volumes are still a fraction of the dominant flow arriving from the United States.

Canada sees a moderate decline under higher ADD

Canada, subject to a higher preliminary duty of $238.49/ton, shipped 27% less in Jan–Nov 2025 than in 2024. Although the decline is more pronounced than the US case, Canadian flows continued, indicating that structural channels remained intact through the preliminary period.

Early 2026 could be a turning point

While the US continued to hold the lion’s share even after August, the landscape is beginning to shift. Alternative suppliers from Asia, the Middle East and Egypt have gained some traction, though their contributions remain modest and far from displacing US-origin volumes.

Market sentiment, however, turned noticeably more cautious toward the end of the year as players began preparing for the possibility of higher definitive duties once Brazil concludes its dumping investigation, likely in early 2026. Should the final rates exceed the current $199.04/ton provisional duty, many players believe the long-standing US–Brazil trade flow will face a more pronounced adjustment as the new cost structure starts to reshape import decisions.