Cautious optimism returns for US PVC in Türkiye as sellers resist further cuts

Players focused on new price announcements this week, with attention once again turning to cautiously improving sentiment for US-origin cargoes. A major US PVC producer was reportedly unwilling to offer discounts from current price levels, a stance attributed to a maintenance shutdown at one of its plants. In mid-September, US-origin PVC tumbled to five-year lows across key markets, pulling global benchmarks back to levels last seen in the early months of the pandemic.

This initially bolstered sentiment for the origin in Türkiye’s and Egypt’s import markets, before prices eased again in October amid renewed stock pressure.

Meanwhile, a few initial November offers from Europe were heard stable from October levels, as regional suppliers avoided reflecting the €25/ton ($29/ton) drop in the November ethylene contract settlement, citing already thin margins. At the same time, some buyers reported discounts for overall duty-free origins, all of which led to a mixed scene as of early the month.

Import market cautiously led by firmer US tone    

In the import market, dutiable Chinese offers hovered around $650/ton CIF, with modest discounts still available despite reports of hike attempts in freight rates. This reflected weak demand and ample supply in China. In contrast, sentiment for US cargoes showed a firmer undertone, with several players confirming that a key producer remained unwilling to accept bids at $600–610/ton cash. Most offers were reportedly centered around $630/ton CIF or slightly above for American cargos.

A trader commented, “We felt that US PVC producers are either testing slight gains or not in a hurry to set fresh offers and allocations. The sentiment among sellers has turned relatively stable or even firmer, with lower caustic soda prices also prompting projections for some hike attempts in the coming days.”

Duty-free K67 searches for a floor    

In the non-dutiable segment, offers were reported for a range of origins, including European, Egyptian, and South Korean, with K67 prices assessed at $725–750/ton CIF, cash—largely unchanged from last week. Unconfirmed talk of a few special deals at $710–720/ton CIF also circulated.

Meanwhile, producers started to issue €10-15/ton drops in Europe’s spot local markets this week, in response to tepid demand and aggressive imports in the region. Regarding the possibility of an anti-dumping (AD) investigation, market participants noted that such a move would require evidence that Asian suppliers sell PVC at higher prices in their domestic markets than in exports to Europe — a scenario they deemed unlikely given the currently low price levels in Asia. Instead, sources suggested that European authorities may consider introducing a quota system to regulate PVC import volumes.

Local supply limited, lends some support
   
On the domestic front, players cited dwindling stocks at Petkim amid a VCM shortage. “We heard that the producer will offer import cargoes to meet customers’ needs until production normalizes by late November,” a buyer commented. The tightening availability at Petkim helped lend slight support to overall sentiment, even as demand remained subdued.

Muted derivatives limits upside potential    

Most players agreed that PVC demand continued to lack momentum, ruling out the prospect of a strong rebound not only in Türkiye but also across Asia and Europe. This comes despite relatively stable crude oil futures and firmer container freight rates on selected routes.

A profile manufacturer said, “We plan to skip purchases for November and look into December shipment prices in the coming days. Derivative orders remain sluggish both at home and abroad, while uncertainties over trade barriers and ample supply keep markets cautious.”

Still, the improved tone for US PVC may help establish a short-term floor, particularly if sellers divert focus to India following the pending anti-dumping clarification. The perception of tighter prompt supply also adds to this cautiously improved outlook.