China PP rout shows no sign of easing as import homo-PP hits 5.5-year low

China’s PP markets extended their declines this week, with import, export, and domestic prices all hitting fresh multi-year lows under the weight of long supply, weak sentiment, and softer costs. Players said that even seasonal demand has failed to lift prices, as oversupply and uncertainty continue to dominate.

Import PPH prices hit lowest since 2020

According to ChemOrbis Price Index data, the weekly average of import homo-PP raffia and injection prices on a CIF China, cash basis has dropped to $825/ton, marking the lowest level since May 2020. Prices have been on a downward trajectory since peaking at around $930/ton in March, reflecting a steady erosion of sentiment through the year.

A trader said that supply continued to rise amid capacity expansions and fewer plant shutdowns. “Seasonal demand has provided some improvement, but downstream manufacturers are still buying cautiously. Supply pressure remains heavy,” he explained.

Import PP block copolymer (PPBC) injection prices also extended their losses, with the low end of the range slipping below the $800/ton CIF threshold. Weekly averages are now near their five-year lows, underscoring the depth of the market’s weakness.

Exports hover around record lows

China’s export homo-PP raffia and injection prices fell further by $20-30/ton this week to $800-830/ton FOB, cash, hovering around the lowest levels since ChemOrbis launched this index in January 2021.

A Chinese trader noted that “before any trade deals between the US and China are finalized, sentiment will stay uncertain.” He added that despite limited downside potential, “weak demand and high inventories are preventing any clear rebound.”

Local prices tumble to fresh lows

On the domestic front, ex-warehouse homo-PP raffia and injection prices have fallen to their lowest since April 2020, tracking declines in futures markets.

A packaging converter said local prices dropped as “crude oil and futures weakened, and imports fell compared to previous offers.” He added, “Oversupply due to growing production capacity is the main reason for the continued weakness. Demand is slightly better thanks to the traditional peak season, but overall orders remain normal. We prefer to stay on the sidelines until prices stabilize.”

Players see no quick recovery

A source from a Chinese producer agreed that ample supply and muted demand continue to weigh heavily. “Inventories are high, new plants are starting up, and maintenance losses are low, so supply pressure remains strong,” he said. Although downstream demand has improved slightly, “the support for prices is still insufficient.”

He added that falling crude oil and propylene costs, linked to OPEC+ output increases and weaker global growth, could keep margins under pressure. “The China-US trade dispute has also affected sentiment. We expect the market to stay weak in the near term,” the source noted.

Some players believe that the market may be approaching a short-term bottom, as prices have already dropped close to historical lows. However, most agree that a meaningful rebound is unlikely unless supply tightens or feedstock costs firm up.

“Downside momentum is limited and a short-term bottom may form soon,” said a trader, but he cautioned that “if any rebound fails to hold, prices could quickly return to the current lows.”