China export growth fuels sharp freight gains from Asia to US and Europe

Container freight rates from China climbed sharply across major trade lanes in early June, as stronger-than-expected Chinese exports tightened vessel capacity not only on transpacific routes but also on services to West Europe and the Mediterranean.

China’s exports rose 19.4% year on year in May, accelerating from 14.1% growth in April and exceeding market expectations. Demand for high-tech products linked to the global artificial intelligence boom was a key driver, with exports of automated data processing equipment surging 66.1% and shipments of high-tech products rising 50.9%.

Against this backdrop, Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) data showed rates from China/East Asia to North America’s West Coast jumped 51% week on week to $4,836/FEU on June 5, marking the steepest increase among major routes. Freight rates to the US East Coast also soared by 25% to $6,336/FEU. The European routes also saw remarkable gains on the week with North Europe rising 37% to $4,076/FEU and 24% to $5,487/FEU over the same period.

The broad-based gains suggest that strengthening export demand from China is no longer affecting only US-bound cargo flows. Instead, vessel capacity is tightening across multiple trade lanes as carriers roll out fresh peak season surcharges and reposition ships to accommodate surging demand.

Major container lines announced a wave of peak season surcharges for June sailings, reflecting expectations that vessel utilization will remain elevated as exporters continue to push cargo into overseas markets.

China - US routes post sharpest weekly gain in a year, yet lags behind 2025 peak

Indeed, there has been a steady but slow firming trend in the ex-China routes to the US since February. However, they have posted their largest gain since June 2025 this past week, reaching their highest levels of the last one year. Compared with February 27 levels, rates from China/East Asia to North America’s West Coast have surged 162% while US East Coast rates have more than doubled over the same period.

Despite the noteworthy weekly increase of 25-51%, the China–West Coast benchmark remains 19% below its 2025 peak, while the China–East Coast route is still 12% below its high seen last year.

Europe routes’ rally exceeds 2025 peaks

While the sharp rise in freight rates on China-US routes has largely been linked to importers frontloading shipments ahead of tariff deadlines, European routes have also recorded substantial gains in recent weeks, indicating that the rebound is spreading well beyond transpacific trade.

Rates from China/East Asia to North Europe represented a 57% increase in just over a month. Freight rates to the Mediterranean rose 46% during the same period. When compared to the pre-war levels in late February, they suggest a larger increase of 66% and 50%, respectively.

The acceleration became particularly pronounced in late May and early June, with North Europe posting the second-largest weekly gain among the major corridors tracked by FBX. Several China-origin routes have now reached their highest levels of the past one year and exceeded their peaks of 2025 after remaining relatively stable during much of the first quarter.

However, the breadth of the increases suggests the current freight rally is increasingly being driven by strong China-origin export demand rather than disruptions affecting a single trade corridor. The simultaneous rise across North America, Europe and Mediterranean routes points to a broader resurgence in Chinese manufacturing exports, particularly in technology-intensive sectors.

Outlook: Strong momentum, but risks emerging

Current market conditions suggest freight rates could remain elevated through the summer as exporters continue to frontload shipments ahead of potential tariff changes and carriers maintain peak season surcharges across major routes.

However, signs are emerging that the pace of export growth may moderate later in the year. China’s latest manufacturing surveys showed a sharp decline in new export orders, while some traditional export sectors such as furniture, toys and footwear have already begun to lose momentum.

For now, strong demand for semiconductors, AI-related equipment, electric vehicles and other high-tech products continues to support cargo volumes. But whether freight rates can extend their recent rally will depend on how long this technology-driven export boom can offset weakening demand in more traditional sectors and whether carriers continue to keep capacity tight across key trade lanes.