China’s export PVC prices edge up from 17-year lows; imports pressured by low US offers

In China’s PVC markets, sellers’ confidence has waned after last week’s price hike attempts. While export prices for ethylene-based PVC have inched higher, local and import prices have remained largely stable. The market remains at a crossroads, supported by demand from India but pressured by weak domestic conditions and competitive US offers.

Operating rates at downstream factories remain low due to sluggish end-user orders and poor profit margins. Buyers continue to limit purchases, with long-term orders scarce amid ongoing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, China’s struggling real estate sector, marked by a slump in house sales in March, has added further pressure on PVC demand.

Export prices on two-week upturn

China’s PVC export prices have been on an upward trend for the past two weeks, following a prolonged downtrend that began in mid-October 2024 and prices hitting their lowest level since 2008, according to ChemOrbis Price Index. After climbing $10/ton last week, ethylene-based K67 prices have risen by another $5-10/ton, while acetylene-based prices have remained mostly stable.

Market players reported strong buying interest from India, as low prices and expectations of a market bottom have drawn buyers in. The pending anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese-origin PVC have also prompted Indian buyers to secure shipments before the official imposition. However, demand from other key markets, particularly Southeast Asia, remained weak, limiting further price hikes.

Meanwhile, improved export data for the first two months of the year has encouraged Chinese sellers, giving them more confidence to maintain a firm stance. ChemOrbis Stats Wizard reveals that after recording a sharp monthly surge of 22% in January, PVC exports continued to climb by 15% month over month in February, achieving their all-time-high volume.

Imports at nearly 5-year lows

China’s import PVC market saw mixed pricing strategies last week. A Taiwanese producer raised prices, but US cargoes continued to undercut the low end of the price range, keeping downward pressure on the market.

This week, import prices have stabilized, yet US cargoes continue to exert bearish pressure. Offers for US-origin PVC have been reported at lower levels of $640-650/ton CIF China, cash. In the meantime, the weekly average price of imports is now hovering at its lowest level since the second half of May 2020, according to ChemOrbis Price Index.

Increases proved to be short-lived inside China

The recent price gains in China’s domestic PVC market have been short-lived, with prices returning to stability this week. A key factor behind this shift is the weakness in Dalian futures, which failed to sustain previous increases, dampening market sentiment. A source from a Jining-based producer commented, “Prices have slightly declined due to weaker futures performance, signaling cautious market sentiment.”

In addition, demand within China has yet to show a meaningful recovery, with buyers continuing to purchase only on a need-based basis rather than restocking. However, supply for acetylene-based PVC has remained relatively tight, which previously allowed this grade to see larger price increases compared to ethylene-based PVC. Despite this, the overall market outlook remains uncertain, as weak demand continues to limit further upside potential.