China’s import LLDPE film breaks below $800/ton as market pressures deepen

China’s PE market extended its bearish streak through late October, with the low end import LLDPE film prices slipping beneath the $800/ton threshold. Despite a mild rebound in Dalian LLDPE futures, sentiment failed to recover amid mounting oversupply, weak ethylene prices, and sluggish inventory drawdowns.

Traders and producers alike cited persistent production expansion and subdued downstream demand as key drags. While the agricultural film season provided some support, overall consumption lagged behind seasonal expectations, keeping prices and trading activity under strain.

Import prices struggle to find a floor

Import PE film markets saw further softening, particularly for LLDPE film, where ChemOrbis data showed the weekly average slipping to its lowest in more than five years. The low end of the LLDPE film price range fell below $800/ton CFR China last week, underscoring the depth of the market’s weakness.

Traders reported US offers at $780-800/ton CIF China, cash, while Middle Eastern origins continued to be offered above the $800/ton threshold despite further modest drops.

Market players noted that bearish fundamentals outweighed any support from futures. A trader commented, “There’s also an expectation of increased supply from Saudi Arabia, so prices are expected to remain weak in the near term.” A source from a Taiwanese producer exporting to China added, “There are many US offers in the Asia region recently, and this has further suppressed regional prices.” Buyers, meanwhile, stayed conservative, purchasing only for immediate needs as weak demand and oversupply continued to dominate.

Local prices also hover at multi-year lows

In the domestic market, LLDPE film, already hovering at pandemic-era lows, eased by another CNY50/ton ($7/ton) last week. January Dalian LLDPE futures rose by CNY67/ton ($9/ton) week-on-week as of October 23 when overall price ranges were assessed, though this minor uptick failed to lift sentiment amid lingering oversupply and weak ethylene feedstock prices, which recently hit more than two-year lows despite crude’s visible rebound.

Local traders also pointed to oversupply as the principal challenge. One trader said, “Growing production capacity is the main factor behind the market’s continued weakness. Demand is slightly better due to the peak season, but overall it remains weak. We prefer to stay on the sidelines as prices continue to fall.” Another trader observed, “ The proposed anti-involution policy could help if implemented, but there’s no follow-up yet.” Market participants noted stronger buying interest for local grades over imports due to competitive pricing and ample supply, with some support from agricultural film production activity, though packaging demand stayed limited.