China’s import LLDPE film market hits near 5-year low

Import LLDPE film prices in China have extended their losses this week, sinking to the lowest levels since August 2020, according to data from the ChemOrbis Price Index.

One of the main drivers behind the persistent weakness is sluggish downstream demand, particularly ahead of the Labor Day holiday, which has kept buyers cautious and limited restocking activity. Operating rates at downstream factories remain low, with many buyers sticking to procurement-on-demand strategies.

Market participants also pointed to the ongoing US-China tariff war and falling upstream costs, including crude oil and key feedstocks, as major factors weighing on sentiment. Additionally, oversupply concerns continue to loom large, with more than 5 million tons/year of new PE capacity expected to come online globally by the end of the year.

LLDPE film prices down 10% in about a month

This week, prices for all origins were quoted at $820-930/ton CIF China, cash, down $15-20/ton from last week. The midpoint of this range indicates the lowest level in almost five years. The low end was dominated by Middle Eastern origins, while ASEAN offers formed the high end. Overall, the market has lost $95/ton (or 10%) since the downtrend began in mid-March.



A trader said, “Prices have dropped significantly compared to last month. Due to the trade tensions, some global suppliers are even diverting cargoes away from China in search of better netbacks elsewhere.” Another source added, “Demand is weak but relatively stable compared to earlier periods. However, the lack of clarity on the US tariff exemption list and limited export orders are keeping the market cautious.”

Saudi major slashes may PE offers, adding to bearish outlook

Meanwhile, a major Saudi producer sharply lowered its May PE offers to China, with LLDPE film offers falling by $60/ton from April levels to $860/ton CIF China, cash. The supplier’s representative noted that cost pressures and fragile demand are driving the decline. “Despite the stronger yuan, buyers remain reluctant due to high import costs and weak downstream orders,” the agent commented.