Competitive non-European PP offers dent outlook in Italy

European PP markets remained under pressure into late October, with competitive Asian offers further undermining sentiment in Italy. Weak demand and long supply persisted as dominant themes, while expectations for a meaningful recovery have been pushed well into 2026.

Aggressive import offers deepen bearish sentiment

Non-European suppliers—particularly from South Korea and China—continued to test the Italian market with competitive offers, adding downward pressure to an already fragile outlook. South Korean PP injection was dealt at €800/ton CIF Italy, 60 days, around €60/ton below the low end of the regional range. PPH prices were heard even below the €800/ton CIF level for this origin, pushing a few buyers to secure some stocks for the first quarter of 2026. South Korean PP random copolymer inj. was transacted at €930/ton CIF, standing €30/ton below the low end. South Korean PPBC inj. was dealt €60-80/ton below the low end at €830-850/ton CIF Italy, 60 days. Meanwhile, Chinese PPBC injection was offered at €830/ton CIF, €80/ton below the low end.

A distributor noted, “We are selling with limited decreases, but imports from Asia are extremely competitive and making it difficult to maintain margins.”

The arrival of such aggressive offers has not yet translated into major trading volumes, but it has set a clear ceiling for domestic sellers trying to defend prices. As one supplier put it, “PP is performing worse than PE. We are offering with small decreases, yet demand is too weak to absorb supply. There will be no hikes in November or December.”

Sellers face long supply, buyers remain cautious

Despite prices sitting at multi-year lows, most buyers remain cautious, limiting purchases to immediate needs while keeping an eye on potential further declines. A buyer reported, “We secured some cargoes this month as prices are very low. There’s some pre-buying interest, but sentiment remains fragile. November and December may see stability to small drops.”

Another converter said they closed October deals with reductions of €30–60/ton, adding, “Demand is slow. I expect further small drops of around €20/ton in November, but not much more since the gap between propylene and PP is already very thin.”

Propylene contracts are expected to settle with slight decreases in November, leaving PP producers with little room for margin recovery. Some sellers reported that demand “needs to be enticed” and further declines of €30–50/ton could be seen in November.

Q4 to continue softer before possible bottoming

Many participants expect prices to decline further in November, with little chance of stabilization in the near term. A trader said, “Prices have already hit very low levels, and November may bring additional small drops before any bottom is reached.” Another seller noted, “We’ll likely close the year with low stocks and restart January at full rates, but a meaningful recovery is unlikely in early 2026.”

With South Korean material reportedly available at competitive levels for January–February delivery, additional downside cannot be ruled out, particularly if European demand remains weak.

Persistent weak demand, long supply, and aggressive Asian imports continue to pressure Italy’s PP market. While some players see prices approaching a floor, no immediate reversal is expected.

A buyer summarized, “There’s still room for small reductions, and November is set to remain soft. Stability may only emerge later, with any potential rebound delayed well into Q1 2026.”