EU may launch ADD probe on Turkish, Vietnamese PET: Is another supply shake-up ahead?

Market sources argue that the European Commission is on the verge of initiating an anti-dumping investigation into imports of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) from Türkiye and Vietnam. Although no official announcement has been made yet, growing chatter within the industry points to possible trade measures targeting these two major PET exporters. Speculation is building, and as the EU mulls potential new restrictions, market players are increasingly on edge over the uncertainty this could bring.

According to players, allegations claim that PET from these countries has been entering the EU at prices below domestic selling levels, causing material injury to the European PET industry. These rumors follow the Commission’s imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties on Chinese PET in April 2024, which dramatically reduced China’s presence in the bloc.

Turkish, Vietnamese PET dominate 2024 imports after China exited the stage

Any trade action against Türkiye or Vietnam could have a major ripple effect, as these two countries jointly accounted for 50% of the EU’s total PET imports in 2024, up from a cumulative 38% share in 2023. This sharp increase coincided with the EU’s clampdown on Chinese PET, leaving a supply vacuum that Türkiye and Vietnam swiftly filled.

Vietnamese PET shipments soared by around 90% in 2023, elevating the country from the fifth to the second-largest supplier. Meanwhile, Türkiye dethroned China in 2023 to become the top PET supplier to the EU, despite only a marginal 1% rise in its export volumes that year.

The shift came after the EU launched an anti-dumping probe into Chinese PET on March 30, 2023, following a 177% import surge in 2022. Provisional duties were applied in November 2023, followed by definitive duties in April 2024, triggering notable declines in Chinese PET shipments in 2023 and 2024 as European buyers shunned Chinese imports since Q2 2023.

These developments have brought a key question to the forefront: Have Türkiye and Vietnam stepped in to replace China, only to end up sharing the same fate?

A supply risk looms for an import-dependent Europe

The EU27 remains structurally reliant on PET imports due to its cost disadvantages and limited internal production capacity. Europe imports far more PET than it exports, and its dependency has only intensified in recent years. Imports have stabilized at around 1.6 million tons annually since their 2022 record high.

Should imports from Türkiye and Vietnam face restrictions similar to those imposed on China, the EU would need to replace nearly 800,000 tons of PET—around half its current import volume—from alternative sources.

Boosting domestic production is unlikely given Europe’s high costs and the lack of competitive advantage, as regional producers are not already running at full rates. The region will therefore need to diversify supply sources amid a global overcapacity and flat demand growth. One way or the other, Europe needs to rely on cheap imports to sustain operations.

Alternative suppliers: Who can fill the gap?

Several countries are positioned to partially offset potential shortfalls, though replacing Turkish and Vietnamese volumes in the blink of an eye will be hard:

South Korea: Being the major global PET exporter, South Korea may serve as a viable alternative. South Korea’s EU market share dropped from 9% to 4.3% in 2024 but could rebound if the country reallocates volumes from other destinations.

India: Benefiting from established trade links, India expanded its share from 1.8% to 2.4% in 2024, signaling growth potential.

Egypt & Pakistan: Egypt edged ahead of China in the rankings, while Pakistan increased its share from 3% to 5% last year.

Indonesia: Following three years of contraction, imports from Indonesia grew by 15% on the year in 2024.

Industry braces for next move

For now, market participants remain in a holding pattern, closely watching whether the Commission proceeds with a formal investigation. Many worry that further trade restrictions would drive up costs and tighten supply even more in an already fragile market, where high season struggles to begin.

As the PET market grapples with record-low spot prices and reduced operating margins, any disruption to established trade flows could have lasting consequences for converters and recyclers across Europe.

Initial reactions:

“We are hearing such talks, but we are skeptical. A major producer is likely behind the push for the probe, but we’ll have to wait and see whether it gains traction,” said a market participant from Switzerland.

A recycler in Italy also confirmed the rumors but doubted the rationale behind such duties. A distributor sharing similar views in the Netherlands noted, “Eliminating two countries at once doesn’t make any sense.” He added, “This move may have grabbed more attention if it weren’t for the main focus centering on Trump’s unpredictability.”

A player in Italy remarked, “It makes little sense to target Vietnamese PET when Europe cannot compete with Asian producers in terms of costs. Duties could only worsen the supply situation and harm competitiveness on the converters’ end.”