Earlier supply concerns eclipsed by low demand in Türkiye’s August PP, PE markets

After recording price gains in the first quarter of 2025, Türkiye’s polyolefin markets shifted direction in April. Prices stabilized in May, then recovered modestly in June, supported by sellers’ reduced stocks and several unplanned production outages. In the third quarter, however, slowing demand came to the forefront, while easing tensions in the Middle East limited further increases. By August, earlier supply concerns had largely disappeared amid easing import volumes, and both PP and PE markets moved into softer territory.

Competitive South Korean offers weigh on PP

This month, homo PP raffia and fibre origins subject to a 6.5% customs duty fell to their lowest levels since December 2023, according to weekly average data from ChemOrbis Price Index. Alongside slow end-product exports to nearby Europe—where players are away for the long summer holiday—the emergence of duty-free South Korean PP raffia offers below $1000/ton CIF dented demand for regular origins.

Although most buyers said they were not interested in these long-distance cargos, many used their presence to justify pushing Saudi and Russian suppliers to accept lower bids. The low end of South Korean PP raffia, likely with bulk shipment terms, was traded at $30/ton below the lowest Saudi Arabian offer this week. These prices emerged despite a narrowing import price gap between Türkiye and China, as well as the weekly gains in spot propylene prices in Asia. This reflected subdued PP demand across Asia as well as lower freight rates amid a relatively clear picture of US-triggered tariffs.

Saudi PPBC inj prices also hit as low as $1000/ton CIF, sending the weekly average to the lowest level since July 2023, given mounting pressure from aggressive South Korean offers.
This matched Asian PP sellers’ showing pricing flexibility in Europe right before regional holidays, with offers emerging at competitive levels for delivery in October-November. This mirrored elevated stocks among Asian suppliers amid muted downstream demand and Chinese capacity additions.

PE buyers resist rollovers from Middle East, US

Earlier this month, PE players discussed the state of supply considering new US sanctions on certain companies, a tariff deal between Europe and the USA, and a recent regulatory change on Qatari-origin material. The trajectory of Iranian and Russian availability was monitored closely, as sanctions on certain companies created ambiguity. Still, lackluster demand was the main driver of the market. Indeed, both Iranian and Russian offers posted drops given sellers’ need to bolster sales.

Middle Eastern offers emerged with rollovers — but faced buyer resistance in line with an ongoing global weakness in resin demand. Initial attempts of around $1000/ton CIF turned to $970/ton on deals for HDPE and LLDPE C4 film.

US PE film ranges softened between moderate volumes for certain grades and thin demand amid their lack of competitive power against Middle Eastern cargos. The recent EU-US tariff agreement — which will allow the flow of US-origin PE into Europe, contrary to earlier concerns — helped keep the size of discounts in check generally. Indeed, American PE found its way to North Africa and Southeast Asia with aggressive prices. Sellers sought available outlets to unload volumes amid sluggish demand in other regions. These markets absorbed surplus volumes that might otherwise have pressured prices more broadly, helping prevent a sharper decline across the board.

Can polyolefin sellers finally break the jinx in September?

Expectations for next month have yet to surface, although a few players project no price recovery. Factors such as Europe’s return from holidays, hopes for post-monsoon demand in India, and China’s approaching “Golden September–Silver October” season could support global polyolefin demand, while lower oil futures continue to weigh on suppliers.

If the US hurricane season remains quiet and Turkish manufacturers keep operating rates low, PP and PE may struggle to gain momentum toward the final quarter, with cash constraints keeping purchases need-based. Players note that prices have long moved within a narrow range, showing only brief recoveries when temporary supply concerns arise from unexpected freight or production issues, or geopolitical tensions. The underlying reality is that global consumption has been damaged, making recovery difficult.