Early March PP and PE expectations firm despite Ramadan caution in Türkiye

Polyolefin prices maintained their firm stance this week, with players widely agreeing that the PP market has risen more easily and more visibly than PE in February. Meanwhile, most participants noted that price increases in both products have stemmed primarily from supply tightness rather than any meaningful revival in derivative demand. Initial expectations for March suggest that sellers may seek additional hikes. That said, some players believe the market may struggle to climb much further as the Ramadan period gets underway.

PP hikes outpace PE increases in February

An increasing number of players have recently commented that import PP offers have posted faster and firmer gains compared to PE. A trader said, “Tight PP supply — most notably the absence of Russian volumes and delivery delays from a key Saudi Arabian producer — has enabled price hikes to gain acceptance. PE sellers, meanwhile, partially retreated from their initial increase targets for certain grades. HDPE film hikes were fully reflected in deals, but import LDPE offers struggled to compete with Petkim. Overall, PE availability has been relatively sufficient compared with PP.”

This week, it can be said that Saudi Arabian PP raffia offers have approached the upper end of $950/ton CIF, while fibre offers — particularly for prompt cargoes — have neared $1,000/ton. Production issues in the region and delays in shipments concluded at the end of 2025 have allowed sellers to negotiate from firmer levels, with prices posting gradual increases on a weekly basis. The absence of ready Russian material in bonded warehouses has further exacerbated the situation.

Persistently rising prices have prompted converters to seek additional volumes to avoid further hikes and eliminate supply risks, largely irrespective of underlying derivative demand.
Turning to PE, no fresh price announcements or revisions were heard from the Middle East this week, as most transactions had already been concluded in the first half of the month.

Meanwhile, US offers continued to post gradual increases amid tight supply. LLDPE C4 film prices climbed to as high as $950/ton CIF on the high end.

HDPE film stood out as the grade where hikes were most readily accepted, supported by tighter availability and relatively healthy demand. Import LDPE prices, on the other hand, faced resistance despite limited supply in certain grades and the absence of competitive offers from Europe and the US.

Short-term sentiment cautiously firm, players wary of early Q2

Several players expect polyolefin markets to remain firm in March, anticipating that supply may not ease quickly, although the start of Ramadan is prompting some caution regarding demand. Most believe prices may see further increases, albeit in smaller amounts, if the Ramadan lull mitigates the impact of supply constraints. A few players did not rule out the possibility of rollovers on transactions, pointing out that downstream demand has yet to catch up with recent resin hikes in Türkiye and China’s post-holiday trend remains to be seen.

A converter said, “The near-term outlook appears strong on the back of reduced availability. Nonetheless, the outlook for April–May is foggy, as PP and PE markets may lose momentum if delayed cargos arrive and religious holidays curb resin demand.” At this stage, the timing of a potential easing in Russian, Iranian, Uzbek, and US polyolefin supply will be another key factor to monitor in the coming period.