Europe PVC mainly stable in Oct; spot softness points to weaker Nov

Europe’s PVC markets followed a largely stable trend in October, considering the stable ethylene contract and producers’ need to protect their squeezed margins. Some spot reductions also emerged occasionally in order to stimulate buying appetite, which held stable but subdued in October. Supply was still ample in the region, partly due to the inflow of low-priced import PVC from Asia. Looking into November, a softer trend may prevail given lower demand projections, lingering oversupply, import pressure and decreasing costs.

Producers try to maintain prices

The steady monomer outcome has pushed suppliers to apply rollovers this month amid their lingering profitability issues. Some sellers conceded to discounts in a few cases, especially in the spot market, in an attempt to buoy demand and defend their market share from regional and non-European competitors. As a result, while appealing import offers were reported during October, extra spot volumes were also offered at large discounts compared to contract levels owing to suppliers’ need to get rid of stocks.

Contract deals, meanwhile, were concluded mainly at stable prices in line with costs. Yet, buyers intend to push for some corrections in long-term pricing during 2026 contract negotiations, in particular from suppliers selling at higher prices.

Subdued demand holds, softer tone builds for Nov

Buying interest remained sluggish in October, mostly mirroring September levels. Converters kept purchases mainly tied to their basic needs, shying away from speculative buying due to limited visibility regarding their order entries and comfortable stocks. The lack of new remarkable projects and incentives contributed to the weak performance of the building industry across the region, some players argued.

As for November, demand is likely to decline in line with seasonal patterns. Buyers anticipate a decrease of at least around 10-15% in their purchasing volumes, but reductions could be deeper as converters seek to manage inventories before the year-end.

Supply remains ample

When it comes to supply, PVC availability continued to exceed market needs, with buyers facing little difficulty in sourcing material. Planned capacity rationalizations—including Vynova’s awaited closure of its Beek plant by November at the latest—and limited operating rates have not brought any relief to oversupply so far. This is partly due to the growing influx of Asian imports in the region, not to mention lackluster demand.

Participants believe that additional cuts in producers’ operating rates are necessary next year to rebalance supply-demand dynamics, unless resin consumption improves notably. At the same time, protectionist measures against Asian PVC are necessary to safeguard the domestic market.

Import pressure persists

Asian imports remained in the spotlight in October due to their competitiveness. The gap with local material was not that wide in Northwest Europe, while it was more pronounced in Italy. Still, converters in northern countries may leverage these low-priced offers to negotiate price adjustments in 2026 contracts.

The most recent offers for Taiwanese K57 showed up at €730-740/ton DDP, with delivery in January, while Chinese K67 was offered at around €610/ton on CFR basis. Locally-held K67 from South Korea, in the meantime, was traded slightly below European origins at €830-850/ton FD in Italy.

European PVC producers have submitted an official complaint to the European Commission regarding Asian PVC imports, which could lead to the launch of an anti-dumping investigation or the implementation of safeguard measures in the months ahead. The rumor has it that at least one producer has requested the investigation to be applied retroactively. Sources expect the EU Commission to express its position in early 2026, while they do not rule out a faster-than-usual action on the complaint.

November outlook is softer

PVC prices may lose some ground in November amid projections for a softer ethylene contract. Indeed, despite the recent spike in crude oil futures stemming from the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russian oil, upstream costs are still softer on a monthly comparison.

In case of a small decline in the next monomer settlement, PVC prices are expected to follow suit given the lack of bullish factors as well as sellers’ need to defend their market share amid an increasingly competitive environment. Accordingly, a margin recovery seems unlikely in November, although rollover requests might emerge in the first place. Still, suppliers are expected to cap the awaited drops, avoiding decreases surpassing half of the ethylene outcome to protect their razor-thin margins.