Europe’s PET bottle market at a crossroads: Will prices rebound from multi-year lows?

European PET markets wrapped up June with modest price reductions, despite the onset of peak season. Local spot deals across both Italy and Northwest Europe were largely concluded with decreases of €20-30/ton, as lackluster demand and ample availability continued to weigh on sentiment. Regional producers are now turning their attention to July to assess whether prices can rebound after a three-month downtrend.

Rising costs and delayed monomer settlements cloud outlook

The energy complex underwent abrupt changes that caught downstream markets off guard. Despite sellers’ firmer stance, price strategies remain tentative due to ongoing volatility in upstream markets. Crude oil prices had seen notable gains by mid-June amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, before dipping below pre-conflict levels following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Earlier expectations were calling for hikes in the monthly PX and MEG settlements. Buyers, particularly in the contract markets, are still waiting for June PX and MEG contracts to settle, adding to the prevailing market indecision.

A source from a West European producer remarked, “We aim to ask for €30-50/ton increases in July prices. Yet, we are not officially seeking hikes due to ongoing crude oil volatility.”

Regional producers eye hikes amid import price pressure

Despite weak fundamentals, some regional suppliers see room for hike attempts in July. Apart from potential cost support, firmer import prices and elevated freight rates may lend some support. Import PET offers have recently moved above €900/ton CIF threshold, providing a potential opportunity for domestic producers to raise offers and restore margins. Moreover, prices are critically low when viewed in a historical context.

Indeed, the weekly average data on ChemOrbis Price Index shows that spot PET bottle prices on FD Italy/NWE basis stand at their lowest levels since February 2021. Demand falling short of expectations, coupled with the availability of competitive import materials, has prevented prices from recovering within the bloc.



Buyers cautious despite seasonal expectations

Sellers also pin their hopes on a seasonal boost. However, converters across the region remain cautious. Most have finalized their June purchases and avoided pre-buying, citing high stock levels and subdued end-product demand. Although July typically marks the peak consumption period, players throughout the chain noted that seasonal support has not materialized as expected. Many buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, reluctant to commit to fresh volumes unless a clearer cost direction emerges.

Upward attempts likely, but resistance strong

The PET market may see suppliers attempt to halt the three-month downtrend with July hikes, particularly if PX and MEG settlements reflect earlier crude oil gains. Some participants anticipate upper-end prices testing above the €1000/ton FD threshold. However, any meaningful rebound will hinge on cost developments and a tangible pickup in downstream demand—both of which remain elusive amid ongoing market uncertainty and broader geopolitical risks.

Distributors in Italy indicated possible initial increases of €30-50/ton, but added that buyer resistance is likely, especially without stronger cost signals or demand improvement.