Europe’s PET uptrend proves short-lived as September expectations weaken

After rebounding in July from a three-month losing streak, European PET markets lost momentum in August. The fragile uptrend quickly gave way to stability and even slight softening, with most deals concluded with rollovers or modest decreases amid summer lethargy and lower contract settlements. Aggressive offers emerged in the latter half of the month, undermining the gains achieved earlier in the summer.

A seller confirmed mostly stable prices in August, but noted hearing of aggressive offers from some Northwest European suppliers. He remarked, “Demand was calm, in line with the month, as many converters in the packaging sector shut down for holidays.”

July rebound proves short-lived, spot gains erased

Spot PET bottle prices posted small increases of around €30/ton between late June and early August, with a lack of robust consumption and sufficient availability limiting the size of price gains.

Converters and distributors agreed that demand followed a seasonal slowdown. One buyer said that demand was quite stable during most of the month, though it slowed in the last week. Meanwhile, another converter said, “Overall conditions were not bad, but softer than usual for the season.”

A distributor reported that the local PET market had been weak through August, while regional producers had been expecting a stronger month. He noted that Southern Europe performed better than Northwest Europe, where prices hit critical thresholds in some cases. Weather conditions failed to support demand in the mineral water and beverage sectors, while lower costs added further pressure. August PTA and PX settlements indicated respective decreases of €7/ton and €10/ton following a €25/ton drop in August MEG contracts.

This lull, coupled with expectations for lower prices, capped any upward potential and even prompted some sellers to offer discounts to maintain sales volumes toward late August. This led spot prices to give back their earlier gains.

Aggressive late-month offers weigh on sentiment

Buyers reported that while the first half of August was largely stable, more aggressive offers appeared in the second half as expectations for September weakness grew. One converter noted purchasing with decreases of around €40-50/ton, reflecting the bearish undertone for next month. Still, others find drops of around €50/ton less likely as producers would struggle to cover costs amid already poor margins.

A seller remarked that Turkish suppliers may return with aggressive offers in September, which could add further pressure on European prices. This aligns with slowing demand projections in the preform sector, offering some relief on the supply side.

Cost outlook steers September expectations

Market participants agreed that September sentiment also hinges on upstream developments. Players closely monitored feedstock markets, with one seller noting that any losses on the upstream side would likely translate into similar decreases in PET resin prices.

Given sluggish beverage consumption, end of the high season and the arrival of lower-priced offers, expectations are broadly tilted toward another round of declines in September. As one buyer summed up, “The uptrend was short-lived. Unless demand improves, prices are likely to move down.”

Late-arriving imports are also expected to weigh on sentiment. A distributor mentioned that some Vietnamese cargoes purchased a couple of months ago are still arriving, adding pressure to sentiment during August.

AD probe on Vietnamese PET curbs import appetite

The European Commission announced on July 17 that imports of PET from Vietnam will be subject to customs registration, following the anti-dumping investigation launched in May 2025. The procedural step allows the Commission to impose retroactive duties if the probe confirm injurious dumping. The potential duties could range between 11% and 28%, based on dumping and injury estimates submitted in the complaint, though no final figures have been set. The registration period will remain in effect for nine months from the date of entry into force.

This regulatory uncertainty has deterred many buyers from taking Vietnamese cargoes, further curbing import interest. Some participants believe that the risk of retroactive duties will keep buyers cautious in the coming months, potentially steering more demand toward local and alternative non-EU sources.