European PE producers extend uptrend into Feb, LDPE leads hike attempts

European PE markets have entered February on a firmer note, extending the uptrend into a third consecutive month following the €15/ton increase in the ethylene contract. Regional producers are pushing for increases exceeding the monomer outcome, citing ongoing margin recovery efforts and tightening availability for certain grades.

While buying interest remains subdued at the start of the month, sellers are increasingly testing the market’s ability to absorb higher prices, especially for LDPE. The coming weeks will show whether these ambitions translate into finalized deals or are moderated amid calm demand conditions.

Up to 3-digit hike attempts emerge for LDPE on tightness

LDPE has emerged as the frontrunner of February hike attempts, with initial offers surfacing at €30-100/ton increases compared to January levels. Tight availability and limited import competitiveness have encouraged producers to seek gains well above the ethylene contract rise.

However, players think that not all of these increases are likely to pass on deals. Distributors broadly expect the LDPE market to absorb gains of around €30–50/ton, while larger hike attempts may face resistance unless supply tightens further or demand improves.

A trader commented, “Demand is rather calm for now, but increases in line with or slightly beyond the ethylene contract hike may still pass on February deals as producers are determined to recover margins. Plus, we avoided fresh purchases from the US due to uncompetitive prices, supporting the current firmness.”

HDPE and LLDPE see more modest gains

In contrast to LDPE, HDPE and LLDPE markets opened February with smaller hike attempts. Initial offers were reported €20–30/ton higher, broadly in line with cost pressure rather than aggressive margin expansion.

Buyers noted that availability remains comfortable, particularly for LLDPE, limiting producers’ leverage. As a result, some market players do not rule out rollovers in certain deals, especially where demand remains weak and inventories are high.

A packaging manufacturer shared plans to curb purchases in February due to elevated stock levels, expecting to pay only minor increases.

Buyers are cautious as demand stays calm

Many converters have remained on the sidelines in early February, monitoring price developments before committing to fresh volumes. While they confirmed receiving firmer initial offers—especially for LDPE—buying activity has yet to gain momentum.

This cautious stance reflects both seasonally slow demand and sufficient supply for most grades, which put a cap on producers’ hike targets outside LDPE. As one buyer put it, “Availability is still comfortable, so we don’t exclude rollovers, particularly for LLDPE.”

February seen as a month of selective firmness

As February unfolds, LDPE continues to display stronger upward momentum, underpinned by firmer costs, producers’ margin recovery efforts, and relatively tight supply. Market participants anticipate that finalized increases of around €30–50/ton may be seen for LDPE in the coming days.

For HDPE and LLDPE, however, conditions remain mixed. While small gains in line with the ethylene contract rise may be absorbed, calm demand and comfortable availability are curbing producers’ initial hike attempts, resulting in limited increases or even rollovers.

Overall, February is shaping up as a month of selective firmness rather than broad-based strength, with demand conditions remaining the key factor in determining how much of producers’ pricing ambitions can ultimately be realized.