Ex-China freight rates to US near 12-month highs, Europe lanes test 2026 peaks

Ex-China container freight markets have regained strong upward momentum, with transpacific routes surging to their highest levels in around 11 months and Europe-bound trades rebounding toward year-to-date highs. The latest rally has been driven by a combination of tighter vessel availability, carrier-led pricing initiatives, Red Sea-related disruptions, and increasingly early peak season buying, pushing rates well above pre-war levels across major global lanes.

Transpacific routes move well above pre-war levels, to 11-month highs

Among the major China-origin routes, transpacific trades have shown the strongest recovery with the latest weekly increases of 13-14%. According to Freightos, freight rates from China/East Asia to North America West Coast rose to $3,181/FEU on May 22, around 73% higher than the pre-war levels in late February. China/East Asia–North America East Coast increased to $4,864/FEU, up around 61% from the levels before the conflict. The current levels for both lanes suggest their highest levels since July 2025.

The pace of gains has also accelerated. Only a week earlier, both routes had been posting mild declines. The latest shift toward double-digit weekly increases suggests that pricing momentum is no longer limited to cost pass-through effects and may increasingly reflect stronger market expectations.

Freightos charts also indicate that transpacific rates have been climbing steadily since early March, before entering a noticeably steeper upward phase in recent weeks. This trend coincides with reports of tighter vessel space and carrier attempts to implement higher pricing ahead of June.

Europe-bound lanes near 2026 peaks

China/East Asia–Mediterranean rates soared by 20% while China/East Asia–North Europe was up only 3% this past week, according to Freightos. China/East Asia–North Europe stood at $2,895/FEU on May 22, roughly 18% above pre-war levels, while China/East Asia–Mediterranean reached $4,387/FEU, about 20% higher than late-February levels. Both lanes suggest near-year-to-date highs.

Earlier in May, Europe-bound lanes were about to erase the war-driven gains; however, the last 3 weeks showed a cumulative gain of 12%, while the Mediterranean rates jumped by a larger amount of 20% this past week.

Market observers noted that longer transit times following Red Sea diversions had already altered buying patterns in recent years, leading some importers to begin ordering cargoes earlier in order to avoid delays before the year-end holiday season. Mediterranean trades appear to be responding more strongly to this trend, posting one of the sharpest recent weekly increases among major ex-China routes.

Early peak season and carrier actions increasingly drive the market

Market participants increasingly point to an earlier-than-usual peak season as an important factor behind recent strength. Under normal conditions, seasonal demand often begins around July, but recent disruptions and longer shipping times appear to have encouraged some cargo owners to move orders forward.

At the same time, carriers continue supporting rates through higher FAK levels, peak season surcharges, selective blank sailings and tighter capacity management. Drewry recently noted additional rate initiatives for June, while reports also suggested stronger booking activity on some Asia-origin routes.

Can the rally hold?

Despite stronger freight sentiment, questions remain over how much of the latest increase reflects genuine cargo demand and how much is being driven by carrier-led supply discipline. The global fleet continues to expand, meaning additional capacity will eventually need to be absorbed by stronger cargo volumes.

For now, ex-China freight markets appear to be moving beyond a simple war-cost story. The next phase may depend less on geopolitical risk and more on whether early peak season demand develops into a broader and sustained cargo recovery.