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PET trade flows, which have already been in flux amid an oversupplied market and increasingly protectionist environment across the globe, have seen a fresh blow from the US administration’s decision to expand reciprocal tariffs to include PET and rPET imports, effective September 8, 2025. This has been particularly important as the doors closing in the US, which is the top PET buyer of the world right after EU27, will intensify pressure on producers across Asia, Europe, and beyond.
Here comes a critical question: with protectionist measures—US tariffs, EU and other antidumping duties, and regional trade defenses—where will the global PET surplus find a home? Major buyers are limited, essentially the US and EU27, leaving alternative regional markets to absorb excess supply under intense price pressure.
US: A surprise policy shift and its implications
The US expanded reciprocal tariffs under the July 31 executive order to cover PET and rPET under harmonized codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00, while it is yet to be officially confirmed by the White House. Previously, countries in Southeast and South Asia benefited from exemptions that made their exports more competitive in the US. Under the new measures, shipments from India could face duties as high as 25–50%, while tariffs for Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Japan range between 15–20%.
What will this mean in practice? This will fundamentally alter trade dynamics.
The US, a net importer with nearly 1.5 million tons of PET imports in 2024, is closing the door on many Asian suppliers. New tariffs and ongoing antidumping (ADD) cases make Asian cargoes less competitive.
According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, PET imports into the US rose by 7% year on year in January–July 2025. Taiwan has been the largest supplier, accounting for 17% of total volumes so far this year and edging out Mexico and South Korea, which followed with respective shares of 15% and 14%. Smaller volumes come from Thailand (10.6%), Pakistan (7.5%), Vietnam (6.4%), Canada (5%), India (4%), Malaysia (3.4%), Indonesia (2.9%), and Japan (2.3%). Canada and Mexico remain exempt from the latest tariff measures, meanwhile.
Who will feed the world’s largest PET buyer then?
While Asian exporters widely face new tariff burdens, Canada and Mexico, exempt under USMCA, will remain crucial suppliers and could even expand their share, which accounted for a combined 23% of 2024 imports. Imports from smaller Asian suppliers are expected to decline as costs rise.
The US will deepen its reliance on NAFTA partners, while Asian-origin PET flows to the market shrink. This will raise costs for US recyclers and converters already under pressure from abundant virgin resin and weak recycled content demand, as the Association of Plastic Recyclers warned.
The EU, the world’s largest PET importer as a group with 1.6 million tons in 2024, is a natural candidate to absorb rerouted PET shipments. Yet, it is simultaneously reshaping its supply mix under trade defense rules.
Vietnamese shipments to the EU27 surged by 90% in 2023 after the bloc began probing Chinese PET in March that year, underscoring how fast trade flows can shift when doors close.
In 2024, Türkiye, Vietnam and Egypt were the top three suppliers to the bloc. If Vietnamese duties are confirmed, flows will likely shift:
Türkiye, already the top EU27 supplier in January–July 2025, stands to gain further ground thanks to its geographic proximity, cost advantage and increasing domestic capacity. Egypt may also expand its presence, filling any vacuum left by Vietnam and India.
Europe’s PET supply is becoming more regionally concentrated—centered on Türkiye and Egypt—while Chinese PET is effectively locked out. Other Asian suppliers particularly South Korea, Indonesia and Pakistan, who will lose around 30-40% of their export shares upon losing the US if the new regulation is confirmed, may also shift their focus onto Europe and ramp up sales here.
China: PET export machine hits trade walls, fragments to ‘others’
Hosting excessive domestic capacities, China remains the world’s largest exporter with about 7 million tons in 2024, dwarfing Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, and Türkiye. Yet, Beijing already faces ADD or tariffs in nearly every major market—the US, EU, India, Mexico, Brazil, Malaysia, Japan , and South Korea. With major destinations closing, Chinese exporters are forced to fragment flows across dozens of secondary markets, with “others” accounting for more than half of exports in 2024, as can be seen from the ChemOrbis Stats Wizard graph below.
Vietnam - albeit not having any protective measures - is also becoming risky for China to divert extra supply as a nearby source as the EU clamps down on Vietnamese PET and Hanoi may double down on intra-ASEAN markets, limiting the room for Chinese PET in Southeast Asia as well.
Thus, looking ahead, China’s diversions may increasingly target Africa - particularly Nigeria and South Africa, Russia, and smaller Latin American economies with fewer trade barriers.
Share of partner countries (importers) in total imports
The rest of Asia: Fight for regional market share will grow, stoking oversupply and price pressure
According to ChemOrbis Stats Wizard, the largest 4 exporters after China were listed in the following order as of 2024: Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. Now that they are squeezed by the US and EU defenses, they are likely to chase for more market share in their own region, amplifying persistent oversupply and intensifying price competition in regional markets.
These Asian top-4 ex-China may accordingly target Japan as it is the second largest buyer of imported PET on a country basis after the US. Similar to China, they may also seek new sales opportunities in Africa.
Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand are also highly likely to raise their interest in the EU27 following the probe that started for Vietnamese PET this year. However, they will need to calibrate their sales ramp-up carefully to avoid a Vietnam-style outcome.
Where will the global PET surplus find a home?
Going back to the critical question raised in the beginning, we can say that emerging demand will center as relief valves.
Africa: South Africa and Nigeria are poised to absorb rising inflows from Asia and China.
Russia: Cut off from Western supply, Russia offers an outlet for surplus Asian cargoes.
Latin America: While Mexico and Brazil maintain ADD on Chinese and Asian PET, smaller Latin American markets remain relatively open and could see diverted cargoes from Asia.
Long-term implications: The reshaped global picture
China’s capacity far exceeds domestic demand, leaving it heavily dependent on overseas markets and a frequent target of anti-dumping measures worldwide. With the US walling off Asian suppliers and the EU tightening its grip on Vietnam and India, PET trade is fragmenting:
EU and US PET trade becomes more regionally concentrated, while China will target Africa and Latin America.
North America leans increasingly on Canada and Mexico. Asian shares will decline under tariffs.
Europe consolidates around Türkiye and Egypt. Less imports are expected from Vietnam and India, while Chinese volumes remain locked out.
China and other Asian exporters push their surplus toward Africa, Russia, and secondary Latin American markets.
The convergence of US tariffs and other global trade defenses signals a new era of protectionism for the PET industry, with far-reaching effects on investment decisions, recycling incentives, and regional supply chain strategies.
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