HDPE film outperforms other PE grades in Türkiye

Türkiye’s import PE market opened November on a weak footing, with deals concluding below October levels. Mid-month, sentiment showed a cautious improvement as US sellers adopted a firmer stance on certain grades. In recent weeks, meanwhile, HDPE film has clearly outperformed LLDPE and LDPE, reflecting shifting supply–demand dynamics.

A similar pattern emerged in Asia, where HDPE film held steady in China and Southeast Asia against additional losses in LDPE and LLDPE C4 film this week.

HDPE film regains premium over LLDPE after 20 months
   
Weekly average data from the ChemOrbis Price Wizard show Middle Eastern HDPE film rising $10/ton above LLDPE C4 film in November—its first premium in almost two years. Multiple players cited relatively better fundamentals for HDPE film, with tighter supply and early signs of improved derivative demand lending the grade more support than LDPE or LLDPE.

Converters noted fewer supply sources for HDPE film amid irregular arrivals from Iran and limited allocations from Uzbek and Russian suppliers. According to traders, US sanctions on a major manufacturer may also have redirected some downstream orders to alternative converters, bolstering resin demand.

HDPE film declines less sharply than LDPE and LLDPE during the bearish stretch
   
Since the downtrend began in August—driven by lower upstream costs and an ongoing global oversupply—Middle Eastern HDPE film has fallen by $80/ton (8%) in total on a weekly average. LDPE film and LLDPE C4 film, however, posted sharper drops of $100–110/ton (10%).

A similar pattern was seen in the distribution market. With competition between Petkim and import suppliers, locally held LDPE film plunged by $140/ton (11%) during the downturn, while LLDPE C4 film fell by $75/ton (7%). HDPE film registered the mildest decrease at $60/ton (5%).

Meanwhile, US LLDPE prices firmed as suppliers eased stock pressure, and shortly after, select US HDPE grades saw upward corrections, aligning with reports of tighter supply compared to other PE products. “US LLDPE C4 film changed hands in the low-$800s/ton CIF before finding a floor. However, US HDPE film never reached such low levels, which meant the downward pressure on Middle Eastern HDPE film sellers remained comparatively modest,” a player noted.

According to the ChemOrbis Supply Wizard, roughly 2 million tons of PE output was estimated to be offline globally in November, with HDPE accounting for the largest share at 36%.

For detailed PE and ethylene operation news across the globe, please visit ChemOrbis Supply Wizard.

What to expect in December?

Recently, the sentiment among PE sellers has cautiously improved, with most of them selling out their November or even part of December quotas. December prices may not change much in either direction, bullish or bearish, taking direction from weak Asian LDPE and LLDPE markets, a recovering European LDPE trend, and firm US sellers. Offers are likely to hover close to the most recent November levels, while the typical year-end slowdown and Middle Eastern suppliers’ need to manage their stocks limit the likelihood of any meaningful increases before Q1 2026. Rather low oil prices and uncertainty around continued European inflows ahead of the Christmas holidays add to the cautious tone.

Moreover, many Turkish converters have already secured material for early Q1 2026 to hedge against potential price rebounds, while easing freight rates have reduced upward cost pressure. HDPE film demand, however, has shown relative resilience since early Q4, supported by limited supply and gradual improvement in downstream activity. If sustained, this could lend some support to the broader polyethylene market in the near term.